The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 2

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. 

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

In general, there has been a trend of somewhat less attention being paid to climate change; most indicators have decreased slightly since Wave 1.

Climate Change Perceptions: While a majority of respondents agree that climate change is real, is a threat that requires urgent action, and has already affected their province or territory, these views are not held uniformly and have decreased slightly since Wave 1. Only 26% strongly agree that they have personally experienced the effects of climate change. Respondents severely underestimate the role of human activity in Earth’s warming. The prevailing scientific consensus is that human activity is responsible for over 90% of Earth’s warming, but only 32% of respondents provided such an answer, while another 36% said that humans are mostly responsible (between 50 – 89%).

Mitigation Behaviours: Many respondents are open to changing their behaviours to support mitigation efforts, though a quarter of respondents would not pay more for products and services that help limit climate change. Willingness to pay is more strongly associated with beliefs and values than with demographic factors, including household income. Use of private vehicles remains high, while other modes of transport have decreased slightly since Wave 1.

Adaptation Behaviours: Two thirds of respondents report having experienced more extreme weather in the past year than normal, while three quarters have experienced at least one extreme weather event in the past two months. There was a moderate decrease in adaptation behaviours compared with Wave 1, possibly due to relatively fewer extreme weather events.

Structural Barriers: Of the four structural barriers to pro-climate action investigated, affordability is the biggest barrier. Most respondents don’t consider knowledge to be a barrier, while opinions on accessibility and ease of use are mixed. The importance of structural barriers may vary by income or community size.

Support for Policies: Respondents indicate highest levels of support for nature-based and circular economy policies, while mitigation policies have mixed support. Geo-engineering ranked lowest on the list, while respondents indicated the highest level of opposition to banning the sale of gas and diesel-powered vehicles.

Trust and Information: Trust in various groups is not unique to specific topics, as respondents ranked trusted groups in the same order whether on climate change or trust in general, with scientists and friends/family on top. Trust in government is lowest on the topic of integrity (influence by industry), and highest on reliability.

4. Considerations

Data Collected: February 17 – March 8, 2022

Sample Size: 2,143, with 1,217 return respondents

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants.

Prior to and during the Wave 2 data collection period:

• Notable weather events in Canada included significant snowfall in southern Ontario, and rain and wind storms in Atlantic Canada. During the height of the Omicron wave in January and February, most provinces reintroduced COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns that affected people’s travel patterns.
• On February 23, the BC government released their 2022-23 budget, including $2.1 billion to help communities recover from and prepare for climate-related disasters, and a shift to year-round operation for BC’s Wildfire Service.
• On February 24, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas, drove up prices, generating calls to increase oil production in Canada and to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy in Europe.
• On February 28, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on climate change impacts and adaptation. The report found that climate change has already done substantial damage, that up to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change, and that keeping global mean temperature increase within 1.5°C will limit impacts and make adaptation more feasible.
• On March 2, the UN approved an agreement to create the first ever global plastic pollution treaty, which was supported by Canada. The treaty is due to be finalized by 2024.

Please note that some figures in this deck may not add up to 100% due to rounding and non-response.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

Beliefs that climate change is real and an urgent threat are not universal

While a majority of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that climate change is real (83%), is a threat that requires urgent action (76%), and has already affected their province or territory (69%), these views are not held uniformly. Only 26% strongly agree that they have personally experienced the effects of climate change. Of the two thirds (64%) of respondents who expect to be harmed by climate change personally, most (80%) report having already experienced its effects. Only 13% of all respondents expect to be harmed by climate change but have yet to experience its effects. Slightly more respondents are sure that the Earth’s climate is changing (70%) than are sure that the climate has warmed over the past four decades (64%).

Canadians substantially underestimate the role of human activity in Earth’s warming

According to the latest IPCC report on the physical science of climate change (AR6 WG I), human activity is responsible for about 98% of Earth’s warming since the 1950s. Here, survey responses above 90% are classified as “correct”. Only a third (32%) of respondents provided estimates above 90%, though two thirds (68%) think that the Earth’s warming is mostly or mainly caused by human activity (responsible for 50% or more of Earth’s warming). The latter result is lower than for a less nuanced question in Wave 1, where 80% strongly or somewhat agreed that the main cause is human activity. A quarter (23%) believe human activity is not the main cause, while few (9%) believe human activity plays no part in the Earth’s warming or that the Earth is not warming.

Canadians are slightly less worried and anxious about climate change than two months ago

Almost half (47%) of respondent are very or extremely worried about the issue of climate change, while a third (31%) feel very or extremely anxious about the issue and a third (32%) feel very or extremely angry. As in Wave 1, people who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority (15%). Compared to Wave 1, there has been a small but statistically significant decrease in worry and anxiety. This may be related to seasonal changes in perception during the colder months, a lower frequency of extreme weather events, or more media coverage of non-climate events. Arrows indicate statistically significant changes in the distribution of answers since Wave 1, as determined by Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

Self-efficacy and norms: Only half of Canadians see pro-climate action as a social norm

Two thirds (64%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that their actions can have a positive effect on climate change. However, only half strongly or somewhat agree that people close to them expect them to do their part in limiting climate change (54%), or that their friends and family are taking such action (51%). This suggests that only half of Canadians consider pro-climate action to be a social norm. Compared to Wave 1, there have been small but significant decreases in perceptions of self-efficacy and pro-climate norms. Arrows indicate statistically significant changes in the distribution of answers since Wave 1, as determined by Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

Canadians are still open to making changes in their own lives to limit climate change

Three quarters (72%) of respondents are still open to making substantial changes in their lives to help limit climate change, though about half of those only somewhat agree with this statement. Compared to Wave 1, there’s a slight drop in those who strongly agree with this statement. The arrow indicates a statistically significant change in the distribution of answers since Wave 1, as determined by a Wilcoxon rank-sum test.

Willingness to pay: Most Canadians are willing to pay a small premium for pro-climate products and services

A quarter (23%) of respondents would not pay anything more for products and services that help limit climate change, while another quarter (23%) are willing to pay a substantial premium (at least 11% more). Half of respondents (49%) are willing to pay a pro-climate premium of 1 to 10%. Various demographic factors, such as age, gender, education, and community size, are statistically related to willingness to pay. People aged 18-24 and 65+, women, those with higher education, and those who live in cities are more willing to pay a pro-climate premium.

Transportation: High reliance on private vehicles, other modes of transport slightly reduced

Dependence on private vehicles remains high, with 87% of respondents using them to get around at least once a week. All other modes of transport have decreased slightly (1% - 5% difference in the top-two values) since Wave 1, perhaps due to less travel in the winter months, as well as lockdowns and other restrictions during the height of the most recent COVID-19 wave (Omicron variant) in January and February.

Food and waste: Behaviours steady over time

Recycling (92% always or frequently) and reducing food waste (77%) remain two of the most common pro-environmental actions, while eating a more plant-based diet remains the lowest at 33%. From Wave 1 to Wave 2, there were no significant changes in the frequency of these self-reported behaviours, unlike transportation, suggesting that there is little seasonality to them and that they are not influenced much by external events.

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Two thirds of Canadians say they have experienced more extreme weather in the past year than normal

Two thirds of respondents (65%) strongly or somewhat agree that they have experienced more extreme weather in the past year than normal. This is slightly higher than the proportion (59%) who reported having personally experienced the effects of climate change. Of those who have experienced more extreme weather than normal in the past year, a quarter (23%) remain unconvinced that they have experienced the effects of climate change. BC has the highest percentage of respondents who strongly agree with the statement, followed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces.

Extreme weather: Though cold, wind and ice are most common, one fifth report periods of heat

Most respondents (77%) report having experienced at least one kind of extreme weather in the past two months, with excessive cold, wind storms, ice storms, and weather-related power outages being the most common. Despite the past two months being the heart of Canadian winter, one fifth (19%) of respondents nonetheless reported periods of excessive heat, likely referring to unseasonably warm periods. The effect of these experiences on perceptions of climate change and support for climate policy will be evaluated in further analyses.

Canadians engaged in fewer adaptation behaviours in the past two months

Similar to Wave 1, more than half of respondents (58%) did not engage in any adaptation behaviours. The most frequent behaviours are information seeking for future impacts of climate change (22%) and local risks of extreme weather events (25%), but these rates were significantly lower than in Wave 1. Around the same percentage of people took action to protect their home, but fewer reported psychological coping.

Winter’s coldest months had little effect on energy poverty, while Albertans reported highest rate

Unexpectedly, there were no significant differences in the proportion of Canadians who struggled to afford energy between Wave 1 and Wave 2. Only 9% of respondent indicated issues with affording energy in the two months prior to Wave 2 (Jan/Feb), compared to 8% in Wave 1(Nov/Dec). In terms of regional differences, the Prairie provinces, and especially Alberta, had the highest rates of energy poverty. Those living in rural and small urban areas are also more likely to be unable to afford enough energy.

8. Structural Barriers for Pro-Climate Behaviour

Perception of unaffordability is biggest barrier to pro-climate behaviours

Of the common structural barriers to pro-climate action – affordability, accessibility/availability, ease of use, and awareness – perceived cost is the biggest barrier. More than two thirds (69%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that environmentally-friendly options are too expensive compared to alternatives. Most people do not consider knowledge of how to act in environmentally-friendly ways to be a barrier (only 11% indicated it was an issue), and opinions on accessibility/availability (50%) and ease of use (49%) are mixed.

9. Support for Environmental and Climate Policies

Strong support for nature-based solutions, while banning gas/diesel vehicles is controversial

Respondents indicate strong support for nature-based solutions and Indigenous-led conservation. Mitigation policies have mixed support, led by a border carbon adjustment (63%). Support for geo-engineering is lowest (47%). ‘Right to repair’ legislation, a circular economy policy, has very strong support. However, support for a national flood insurance program is surprisingly low (55%) compared to the adaptation policies included in Wave 1. Banning the sale of gas and diesel-powered vehicles faces the most opposition (35%).

10. Trust & Information

Little difference between trust in general (Wave 2) and trust on climate change (Wave 1)

Scientists and family and friends remain the most trusted groups to make good decisions in general (79% and 71%, respectively). In Wave 1, respondents were asked about their level of trust in these same groups to make good decisions about climate change. Overall, respondents report less trust, in general, for all groups other than scientists. However, there is almost no change in the ordering of groups for trust in general as compared with trust on climate change. It appears that trust is mostly not issue-specific, but reflects an underlying general tendency.

Dimensions of trust in GC: Low perceived integrity, but climate policy is not wasted money

Building on the Wave 1 finding that trust in government was low, Wave 2 explores nuanced dimensions of trust in the federal government. Seven questions each assess a facet of trust (indicated in brackets), while one additional question asks about perceptions of waste. About half of respondents distrust the federal government on most dimensions, with distrust in the federal government’s integrity highest (63%). Half of respondents (53%) think that the government is not competent enough to deal with climate change. However, most respondents (54%) disagree that climate policy is a waste of money.

Canadian TV and radio, and friends and family, are the most common sources of information

Canadian TV and radio channels, including their websites, are the most common source of information for Canadians (53% always or frequently), while friends and family are second (48%). Understandably, people report using most sources of information less for climate change (Wave 1) than for information in general (Wave 2), but the biggest difference is for family and friends. Family and friends were far more common as a source of information in general (48% always or very frequently, Wave 2) than for climate change specifically (24%, Wave 1).

11. Regional Profiles