The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 3

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. In Wave 1, the oversample was used to extend the general population sample to 2,000 participants.

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

In general, there has been a trend towards less attention paid to climate change and less willingness to act, with most indicators decreasing slightly.

• Climate Change Perceptions: While most respondents agree that climate change is real and will bring about serious negative consequences in the near-term, these views are not held uniformly, and all measures of climate change belief and risk perception are down slightly (2 to 4%) since Wave 1 (Dec/21). While most respondents strongly agree that climate change is real, only half strongly agree that it is primarily caused by human activity. Of the three quarters who expect that climate change will affect their local area, most think it will happen sooner than later.
• Mitigation Behaviours: Two thirds of respondents are willing to make changes in their lives to limit climate change, but this willingness to act has been dropping since Wave 1. Those unwilling to take further action most often believe that others have more responsibility to act or that their own actions have little impact. The use of most forms of transport has increased in frequency since Wave 2 (Feb/22), most notably in active transportation and short flights (<5 hr).
• Adaptation Behaviours: Canadians experienced fewer extreme weather events in the past two months than preceding Wave 2, and there have been decreases in almost all types of extreme weather. Engagement in adaptation behaviours has also decreased, with two thirds of respondents reporting no adaptation behaviours in the past two months. Information seeking continues to be the most common such behaviour.
• Policy Support: Respondents expressed strong support for policies that make electric vehicles more affordable and convenient, while policies related to carbon pricing and the oil and gas industry were less supported. Support for both global and national carbon pricing has decreased since Wave 1. Those who support national carbon pricing believe that it is effective in incentivizing emissions reductions, while those who oppose the policy believe that it places an unfair burden on the average Canadian and is ineffective.
• Climate Literacy and Misinformation: Canadians underestimate the climate benefit of high-impact behaviours such as switching to a vegan diet, and overestimate low-impact actions like littering or buying local food. Respondents were able to correctly assess most statements regarding climate change as accurate or inaccurate, but most Canadians disbelieve that Canada's annual GHG emissions have been relatively stable for the past 20 years. More than a third of respondents believe in misinformation that Canada's carbon pricing has tripled the gas price since 2019.
• Trust and Information: Scientists and family and friends remain the most trusted groups on climate change, but there has been a small decrease in the level of trust in family and friends. Trust in the Government of Canada remains steady and relatively low. While most respondents disagreed in Wave 2 that climate policy is a waste of money, only 20% agreed in Wave 3 that the federal government spends money efficiently on climate change. Social media is used much less frequently as a general source of information than traditional media.

4. Considerations

Data Collected: April 25 – May 16, 2022

Sample Size: 2,081 Canadians aged 18 years and older, of which 1,452 are return respondents who responded to Waves 1 and/or 2

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants.

Prior to and during the Wave 3 data collection period:

• Notable weather events in Canada included spring flooding, particularly in Manitoba, and April snowstorms in Alberta and Manitoba.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian oil and gas continued. Rising energy prices and geopolitical concerns generated further calls to increase oil and gas production in Canada and to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy in Europe.
• The 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) and Budget 2022 were published in late March and early April, respectively. The ERP outlined the federal government's plan to sharply curb greenhouse gas emissions over the next eight years to meet 2030 targets, while Budget 2022 highlighted funding for zero-emission vehicles, clean electricity, clean technology, and oceans and freshwater.
• On April 1, the federal carbon pricing benchmark increased from $40 to $50 per tonne. Several provincial governments announced relief from high gas prices, including one-time payments and temporary tax reductions.
  • Climate Action Incentive payments to Canadians are now made quarterly instead of annually.
• On April 4, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Working Group III contribution to its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), focusing on climate change mitigation. The report found that the world is not currently on track to keep global heating below 1.5°C, and further action is needed to phase out coal use, invest in new technologies like carbon capture and storage, and reduce demand for energy-intensive goods.

The data has been weighted by region, age group, gender, and education to ensure that the sample distribution reflects the actual Canadian adult population according to Statistics Canada census data. As the participants were recruited through an online panel assembled through multi-phase probabilistic sampling, it is appropriate to have an associated margin of error. For a sample of this size is +/-2.1%, 19 times out of 20. We did not oversample specific populations in this wave, though this option is available to us and will be explored in Wave 4. Please note that some figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and non-response.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

Strong belief in climate change but less agreement on the role of human activity

All measures of climate change belief and risk perception are down slightly (2 to 4%) since Wave 1, but the differences are not statistically significant. While most (73%) respondents strongly agree that climate change is real, only half (52%) strongly agree that it is primarily caused by human activity. Notably, a quarter (23%) of respondents only somewhat agree with such a cause, while another 7% neither agree nor disagree. 

Strong perception of severity, but less agreement on local and near-term impacts

A majority (57%) of respondents strongly agree that climate will bring about serious negative consequences, but less than half (41%) strongly agree that climate change will influence their local area. Of the three quarters (73%) of respondents who expect climate change to affect their local area, most (82%) think it will happen sooner than later. Only 8% of all respondents anticipate local impacts but expect that they will take a long time to manifest.

Worry and anxiety about climate change have slightly lessened over the past four months

Almost half (46%) of respondent are very or extremely worried about the issue of climate change, while around a third (30%) feel very or extremely anxious, and a third (32%) are very or extremely angry about the issue. As in Wave 2, people who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority (13%). Self-reported confusion on the issue remains low at 13%. Compared to Wave 1, there have been small but statistically significant decreases in worry and anxiety, though at a lower rate between Waves 2 and 3. This may be related to seasonal changes in perception, a lower frequency of extreme weather events during recent months, or more media coverage of non-climate events.

Only about half of Canadians see pro-climate action as a social norm among those close to them

Perceptions of self-efficacy remain stable, with two thirds (64%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agreeing that their actions can have a positive effect on climate change. Compared to Wave 2, there has been a small but significant rebound in perceptions of pro-climate norms. A majority of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that people close to them expect them to do their part in limiting climate change (59%), and that their friends and family are taking such action (56%).

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

The willingness of Canadians to take pro-climate action is slipping

About two thirds (69%) of respondents are still open to making substantial changes in their lives to help limit climate change, though about half of those only somewhat agree with this statement. The proportion of Canadians willing to act has slipped by 6% in the four months since Wave 1. This may be further indication that competing factors, like inflation, have moderated the attention paid to climate change. 

Canadians are most willing to change their mode of transport, recycle, and reduce waste

Respondents who indicated a willingness to make changes in their lives to help limit climate change (strongly or somewhat agree) were asked an open-ended follow-up to elaborate in their own words. These answers were then categorized. The most frequent answers relate to transportation, waste reduction, and recycling, while home retrofits and energy use are somewhat less frequent. Some respondents provided answers unrelated to personal actions but rather called for big polluters to make changes or for government and other actors to make pro-climate choices more affordable.

Some Canadians unwilling to act due to perceived lack of responsibility and self-efficacy

Respondents who indicated an unwillingness to make changes in their lives to help limit climate change (strongly or somewhat disagree) were asked an open-ended follow-up to elaborate in their own words. These answers were then categorized. The top answer suggests that respondents who are unwilling to make changes in their lives believe that others should change first or that individual actions will have little impact. One quarter (27%) said that they are already doing enough and need not make further changes in their lives. Very few people (3%) indicated that they do not have any responsibility, though many more are likely to share that view if asked directly. A quarter indicated that climate change is not real or not caused by human activity.

Transportation: High reliance on private vehicles, but active transportation increasing as weather warms

Dependence on private vehicles remains high, with 86% of respondents using them to get around at least once a week. All other modes of transport have increased slightly since Wave 2, likely due to the warming weather, as well as the relaxation of lockdowns and other restrictions since January and February. The use of active transportation (walking, running, biking) has shown the greatest increase (+6%) since Wave 2.

Private vehicles: Uptake of EVs is steady, and intention to purchase is down

About 12% of respondents report owning or leasing either an electric vehicle (EV) or hybrid vehicle (plug-in or not), though just about half (42%) of them also have a gas- or diesel-powered vehicle. While rates of EV uptake are low (4%) and have not increased since Wave 1, another 11% of respondents say that they plan to purchase an EV in the next year. This intention is down significantly from 15% in Wave 1. Of those who indicated such an intention in Wave 1, only 10% have followed through in the intervening four-month period. While current uptake of EVs is lower than for hybrids, more people plan to purchase an EV than either type of hybrid vehicle.

Food and waste: Behaviours steady over time

Recycling (92% always or frequently) and reducing food waste (78%) remain two of the most common pro-environmental actions, while eating a more plant-based diet remains the lowest at 34%. From Wave 2 to Wave 3, there were no significant changes in the frequency of these self-reported behaviours, unlike transportation, suggesting that there is little seasonality to them and that they are not influenced much by external events.

Flights: Air travel increased significantly in past two months

Compared to other transportation behaviours, flying remains uncommon. Only 13% of respondents have taken a short flight ( <5 hr) in the past two months, and 9% have taken a long flight (>5 hr). However, self-reported air travel has increased significantly since Wave 2, likely due to fewer travel restrictions and warmer weather. Flying is expected to increase further in the next wave because of the summer travel season.

Most homeowners aware of heat pumps, operating costs seen as both advantage and disadvantage

All homeowners were asked whether they had heard of a heat pump, and those who answered yes were asked an open-ended question about the advantages and disadvantages. Three quarters (75%) of homeowners have heard of a heat pump. Respondents note that heat pumps allow for more consistent temperature, energy savings, and lower costs to heat and cool homes. On the other hand, the most common disadvantages include high cost to run and not enough warmth for winter. The inclusion of operating costs as both an advantage and disadvantage warrants further inquiry and likely differs by provincial energy system.

Rates of energy affordability are steady overall, but with regional changes

Overall levels of energy affordability have remained steady across three waves since December 2021, with around 88% of respondents indicating no issues being able to afford enough energy. However, when broken down into regions and community size, there are some changes that warrant further investigation. Regionally, the percentage of respondents who answered No or Prefer not to say increased in the Atlantic provinces (from 11% to 22%) and decreased in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (17% to 11%) between Waves 2 and 3.

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians experienced fewer extreme weather events in past two months

Nearly two thirds of respondents (61%) say that they have experienced at least one kind of extreme weather in the past two months, down from three quarters (77%) in Wave 2. Excessive cold, wind storms, and weather-related power outages were the most common. Notably, Wave 3 data collection ended prior to May’s major thunderstorm (derecho) in ON/QC. Compared to Wave 2, there has been a statistically significant decrease in all extreme weather experiences in the past two months, except for wind storms, power outages, and hurricanes.

Canadians engaged in fewer adaptation behaviours in the past two months

Two thirds (66%) of respondents engaged in NO adaptation behaviours in the past two months, up from 58% in Wave 2 and 53% in Wave 1. The most frequent behaviours are information seeking for the future impacts of climate change (19%) and for the local risks of extreme weather events (20%), but these rates have continued to decrease since Waves 1 and 2.

8. Support for Climate Policies

Strong support for electric vehicle policies, decreasing support for carbon pricing

Respondents were presented with a range of mitigation policies corresponding to policy areas in the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan. All but one policy attracted support from a majority of respondents, though levels of support and opposition vary substantially. There is fairly strong support for policies that make electric vehicles more affordable and convenient, while policies related to carbon pricing and the oil and gas industry have less support. Policies related to the national carbon price attracted the strongest opposition. Support for both global and national carbon pricing are lower than in Wave 1 by 6% and 8%, respectively. Three quarters (75%) support subsidizing energy-efficient equipment for farmers, but less than half (41%) support a similar subsidy for oil and gas producers.

Those who oppose carbon pricing perceive unfairness, inefficacy, and skepticism in government

Respondents were asked to elaborate on their support or opposition to the national carbon price in an open-ended follow-up. These responses were then categorized. The most common reasons for supporting the carbon price are that it will help reduce emissions and force polluters to pay for the solution. The most common reason for opposing the policy is that it is unfair to average Canadians while rich people are not as affected by the tax. Those who oppose the tax are more skeptical of government and whether the tax will lead to any change in industry. Many respondents, regardless of their support or opposition, agree that the largest polluters need to pay for the solution.

9. Climate Literacy & Misinformation

Behavioural climate literacy: Underestimating high-impact and overestimating low-impact actions 

Respondents categorized nine actions as having a high, medium, or low impact on GHG emissions. The behaviours below are arranged from high to low impact behaviours based on expert assessments, while respondents’ answers are shown in bars. Canadians appear to have imperfect understanding of the relative impact of different pro-climate behaviours. Switching from an SUV to public transit is the only high-impact action correctly identified by more than a third (38%) of respondents, while the impacts of longhaul flights (26%) and plant-based diets (20%) are widely underestimated. Low-impact actions are scored higher than most high- and medium-impact behaviours, suggesting that many Canadians do not know which actions have high impact and overestimate the effect of low-impact actions.

Most Canadians misinformed about Canada’s GHGs emissions trajectory

Overall, respondents were able to correctly assess most of the true news headlines as very or somewhat accurate. However, three quarters (73%) of respondents rated the statement “Canada’s annual greenhouse gas emissions were relatively stable for 20 years before the pandemic” as somewhat or very inaccurate. Only 4% said that the claim was very accurate. This suggests that most Canadians are misinformed about Canada’s annual GHG emissions, which hovered between 700 and 750 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent from 1999 to 2019 (source). Emissions dipped in 2020 because of pandemic-related restrictions, alongside their economic effects, but are expected to have rebounded in 2021.

Cost of carbon pricing is the most common misconception

Similarly, most respondents were able to correctly assess the false news headlines as very or somewhat inaccurate. The most common misconception is that Canada’s national carbon price has tripled the cost of gasoline at the pump since 2019, with 38% of respondents assessing the claim as very or somewhat accurate. Some of the observed opposition to national carbon pricing may be due to such misinformation. Notably, about a third (30%) of respondents also rated misinformation about changes in Earth’s solar orbit as very or somewhat accurate.

10. Trust & Information

Trust on climate change is steady, with limited trust in GC

Scientists and family and friends remain the most trusted groups to make good decisions on climate change (79% and 69%, respectively). There has, however, been a small but statistically significant decrease in the level of trust in family and friends. Trust in all levels of governments on climate change remains low and stable. Note: In Wave 3, the scale was changed to a 7-point scale from a 5-point scale to achieve more nuance in the analysis. Due to constraints on survey length, three further groups that were included in earlier waves were omitted from this question in Wave 3 (i.e., energy companies and environmental groups).

The majority of Canadians distrust GC’s integrity on climate change

Two thirds of respondents distrust the federal government’s integrity on climate change, with 65% indicating the government is too influenced by industry. There is somewhat lower distrust (45 to 50%) on other aspects (competence, care, efficiency). Only one third agree that the federal government is competent enough to deal with climate change (32%), and that the government listens to what ordinary people think about climate change (28%). Only 20% agree that the federal government spends money efficiently on climate change. However, in a related question in Wave 2, most respondents (54%) disagreed that climate policy is a waste of money. Note: The apparent changes are not statistically significant.

Canadian TV and radio, and friends and family are the most common information sources

Canadian TV and radio channels, including their websites, continue to be the most common source of information for Canadians (52% always or frequently), while friends and family are second (43%). Compared to Wave 2, conversations with friends and family exhibited a small but statistically significant decrease (48% to 43%), and podcasts dropped slightly (19% to 17%).

YouTube and Facebook lead social media as information sources

Social media is used much less frequently as a general source of information than traditional media. Only podcasts and government websites fall below YouTube and Facebook in average frequency of use. Of the social media platforms, YouTube (24% Always or Very frequently) and Facebook (21%) are the most frequently used. All social media platforms are more commonly used by those 18 – 34 years old, except that Facebook is most frequently used by those over 35. YouTube and Twitter are more commonly used by men, while Instagram and TikTok are more commonly used by women.

11. Regional Profiles