The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 4

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. In Wave 1, the oversample was used to extend the general population sample to 2,000 participants.

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

In general, attention paid to climate change and willingness to act are no longer declining. New results show that follow-through on high-impact actions is very low, suggesting a large intention-action gap related to systemic and structural barriers.

Climate Change Perceptions: While attention paid to climate change and willingness to act are no longer declining, only half of Canadians strongly agree that climate change is a threat that requires urgent action. Respondents expressed low levels of agreement that climate change has had local and personal effects, though such perceptions have increased significantly since Feb 2021. Levels of worry, anger, and anxiety in response to climate change have not improved since Dec 2021. Hope continues to decline slowly, as does the perception that one’s actions can have a positive impact on climate change.

Mitigation Behaviours: While most people believe in the urgency of climate change, willingness to pay a pro-climate premium and engagement in various mitigation behaviours have remained stable or decreased slightly. Use of active and public transportation is increasing, but people continue to rely far more on personal vehicles. Conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles remain the dominant choice for respondents, although the share of electric or hybrid vehicles is rising.

Adaptation Behaviours: More respondents report that they have recently experienced extreme weather, compared to responses in April, with significant increases in reported windstorms, power outages, and periods of excessive heat. More respondents also report having engaged in climate change adaptation behaviours, most notably information-seeking for extreme weather events in their local area. However, household emergency preparedness remains relatively unchanged.

Intention Follow-Through: Follow-through on previously reported intentions to take expensive, high-impact actions, like installing heat pumps or buying EVs, is low. While the share of EVs and hybrids is increasing slowly, only 3% of respondents who reported in December 2021 that they intended to purchase or lease an EV or hybrid have now done so, with many instead acquiring a gas or diesel vehicle. Follow-through rates for home retrofits and emergency preparedness are also low, though up to a quarter of those who intended to conduct or purchase specific retrofits and insurance products have followed through.

Policy Priorities: A new analysis shows that among respondents in our sample, strengthening the health care system, reducing cost of living, and limiting further climate change are most frequently identified as top policy priorities, and as most worthy of public investment. Protecting and restoring nature and adapting to the impacts of climate change rank fourth and sixth, respectively, of the ten policy options. Respondents who select climate change mitigation as a high priority tend also to prioritize adaptation, reconciliation and nature policies, trading off against fiscal and economic policies.

Trust and Information: Trust in all levels of government on climate change remains stable and relatively low. Scientists and friends and family remain the most trusted groups. However, trust in scientists varies depending on the type of scientist, with academic scientists being more trusted than government and non-profit scientists, and industry scientists least trusted. Distrust in the federal government’s integrity on climate change and ability to spend money efficiently on climate change policies continues to rise.

4. Considerations

Data Collected: June 20 – July 7, 2022

Sample Size: 2,020

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants. Prior to and during the Wave 4 data collection period:

• Notable weather events in Canada included a severe thunderstorm (derecho) on May 21 in ON and QC, and a heat wave in Yukon/NWT in early July.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian oil and gas continued. High energy prices and geopolitical concerns generated ongoing calls to increase oil, gas and hydrogen production in Canada and to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy in Europe.
• On June 8, Canada launched the first federal carbon offset market. Such markets allow organizations that emit GHGs to pay for those emissions through the purchase of credits created when emissions are cut elsewhere.
• On June 9, Canada announced a Climate Action and Nature Protection Partnership with California, collaborating to advance policies on zero emission vehicles, clean electricity, climate change adaptation, and nature conservation.
• On June 20, Canada announced new regulations on the manufacturing and import of six categories of single-use plastics, which will begin to take effect in December 2022.
• On June 20, Canada released the final version of the Clean Fuel Regulations, which require gas and diesel suppliers to gradually reduce the carbon intensity of fuels they produce, starting in December 2023. Impact analysis published prior to the release predicted that the new regulations could increase the price of gasoline by up to 13 cents per litre by 2030, and that they will disproportionately affect lower-income families.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

Only half of Canadians strongly agree that climate change is a threat that requires urgent action

All measures of climate change belief have remained stable since this set of questions was last asked in Wave 2 (Feb 2022), though belief that the climate is not changing decreased significantly among repeat respondents. Two thirds of respondents (66%) strongly agree that Earth’s average temperature is rising. Only 58% strongly agree that climate change requires urgent action. Notably, a small minority strongly disagree that the climate is changing (5%) and that it requires urgent action (12%).

Only one third of Canadians strongly agree that climate change has had local and personal effects

Three quarters (74%) of respondents somewhat or strongly agree that their province or territory has already felt negative effects from climate change. Only one third of respondents strongly agree that climate change will harm them personally (33%), or that they have already personally experienced the effects of climate change (29%). However, perceptions of the local and personal impacts of climate change have increased significantly since these questions were last asked in Wave 2 (Feb 2022), potentially due to recent experiences of extreme weather. Across Waves 2 and 4, a stable minority (9-13%) strongly disagrees that climate change has had local or personal effects.

No significant difference in framing climate change as a “crisis” or “emergency”

To test framing effects, half of respondents were asked whether climate change is a “crisis”, while the other half were asked whether it is an “emergency”. Almost half of respondents (46%) strongly agree that climate change is a crisis/emergency today. Slightly more respondents strongly agree that climate change will be a crisis (53%) or emergency (50%) in 10 years. Notably, there is no difference in response between the “crisis” and “emergency” framings today. Though there is an apparent difference in the 10-year outlook, it is not statistically significant.

Worry, anger and anxiety in response to climate change have not improved, while hope has dipped

Respondents’ emotional responses to climate change have been relatively stable since Wave 3. Half (47%) of respondents remain very or extremely worried, while a third feel very or extremely angry (33%) and anxious (32%). A quarter (26%) feel overwhelmed, and one-sixth (14%) numb. People who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority (12%), representing a small decline in hope since Wave 2 (Feb 2022).

Canadians losing belief in the impact of their own climate actions

Three quarters of respondents (72%) somewhat or strongly agree that they are willing to act to limit climate change. The apparent increase since Wave 3 is not statistically significant. Two-thirds of respondents (62%) strongly or somewhat agree that their actions can have a positive effect on climate change (i.e., self-efficacy). This represents a statistically significant and gradual decline in perceived self-efficacy since Wave 1. Perceptions that people close to the respondent expect them to act (58%) and that their family and friends are taking action (51%) have decreased significantly since Wave 3 (Apr 2022). That said, more than half of respondents still strongly or somewhat agree with these statements.

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

Self-reported willingness to pay a pro-climate premium may be unaffected by contextual factors

A quarter (23%) of respondents would pay nothing more for products and services that help limit climate change, while another quarter (23%) are willing to pay a substantial premium (of at least 11%). Half of respondents (47%) are willing to pay a pro-climate premium of more than 5%. These proportions have not changed significantly since the question was last asked in Wave 2 (Feb 2022), suggesting that self-reported willingness to pay is somewhat unaffected by contextual factors, like inflation and seasonality. In a regression model, the strongest predictors of willingness to pay were being more educated, having higher income, believing more in climate change, and being willing to make substantial changes in one’s life to help limit further climate change.

High reliance on private vehicles, but other modes of transport increasing with warmer weather

Dependence on private vehicles remains high, with 84% of respondents using them to get around at least once a week. All other modes of transport have continued to increase slowly since Wave 2, likely due to the warming weather, as well as the relaxation of lockdowns and other restrictions since January and February. The use of public transportation has increased slightly since Wave 3, a statistically significant difference, while other apparent changes are not statistically significant.

Conventional gas and diesel vehicles remain most common, but new EV/hybrid purchases rising

Of the respondents who report ever having purchased or leased a personal vehicle, gas or diesel vehicles remain the most common type of motor/engine for their most recent vehicle. However, there has been an increase over time in the share of electric and hybrid vehicles, from 10% of new vehicles purchased or leased five years ago to 30% of new vehicles within the last 6 months. For reference, registration data from Statistics Canada shows that 10% of new vehicles registered in 2021 were electric or hybrid. However, likely due to limited availability of second-hand electric and hybrid vehicles, used vehicle purchases within the last 6 months remain overwhelmingly (92%) gas or diesel.

Most who intended to purchase an EV/hybrid in December have not followed through

Overall, very few (3%) Wave 1 respondents who intended to purchase or lease an electric vehicle (EV) or hybrid in the next year have followed through six months later. Among respondents who have purchased or leased a vehicle in the last six months, conventional gas and diesel vehicles are most common. Notably, two thirds (67%) of respondents who intended to purchase or lease an EV or hybrid in Wave 1, and subsequently acquired a vehicle, ended up with a gas or diesel vehicle. Similar to past results, this suggests an important gap between intention and action for costly, high-impact behaviours, likely exacerbated by recent supply issues in the EV market. Further research is warranted to better understand the nature of this intention-action gap, and how to bridge it.

Most Canadians have never owned an EV, but costs, environmental benefits, and operating characteristics dominate perceptions

The vast majority of Canadians (90%) have never owned or leased an EV. The most commonly perceived advantages of EVs are their environmental benefits and operating costs. The majority of respondents (60%) note that EVs are more environmentally-friendly (including those who indicate lower greenhouse gas emissions or not using fossil fuels), while one third highlight their lower operating costs (38%). The most commonly perceived disadvantages of EVs are their purchase cost and operating constraints. One third of respondents report that EVs are too expensive to buy (37%), that there are not enough charging stations (37%), and that their driving range between charges is too small (36%).

Flights: Air travel has continued increasing

Flying has a major climate impact despite its infrequency relative to other modes of transportation. One fifth (21%) of respondents have taken at least one flight in the past two months, with 16% reporting at least one short flight ( <5 hours), and 10% reporting at least one long flight (>5 hours). As in previous waves, more respondents have taken short flights than long flights. There have been statistically significant increases in both long and short flights since Wave 2, a trend that is likely to continue through the summer travel season, with the potential for an increase in business travel in the fall months.

Food and waste behaviours still steady over time

Recycling (91% always or frequently) and reducing food waste (77%) remain two of the most common pro-environmental actions, while eating a more plant-based diet remains the lowest at 32%. There have been some slight but statistically significant changes in three behaviours since Wave 3 (reducing plastic use, recycling, and reducing food waste), but these changes are not yet meaningful in the context of current analyses.

Half of Canadians repair and buy second-hand at least once a month

Around half of respondents report having repaired products to extend their lifespan (53%) and bought/traded secondhand instead of buying new (43%) at least once a month. However, a majority (61%) also bought things new instead of buying second-hand, trading, or repairing with the same frequency. Buying/trading secondhand has dropped significantly since these questions were last asked in Wave 1 (Dec 2021).

Canadians speak about climate change with family and friends, but rarely post on social media

More than half of respondents report having spoken to their family and friends about climate change at least once a month (58%) in the last two months, but far fewer posted on social media about climate change (14%) or attended a climate change demonstration or rally (1%). Notably, friends and family are second only to Canadian TV and radio as reported sources of information. These results are nearly identical to Wave 1 (Dec 2021) when these questions were last asked, suggesting that they be somewhat unaffected by seasonal or contextual factors.

Follow-through on home retrofit intentions is low overall, but varies by type

Overall, less than one third of homeowners who intended to perform a given retrofit within the next year in Wave 1 (Dec 2021) have followed through six months later, another example of the important gap between intention and action for costly, high-impact behaviours. However, this proportion varies by retrofit, with more follow-through for retrofits like new/improved insulation (25%), and less for solar panels (7%). A further share of homeowners spontaneously performed retrofits without having expressed an intention to do so. Spontaneous retrofits were notably highest for energy efficient windows/doors (18%), at nearly the same rate as those who planned to do so. This suggests that forward planning is more important for certain behaviours like heat pumps, which exhibited a 4 to 1 ratio between rates of planned and spontaneous retrofitting.

Energy unaffordability has increased slightly since December, with important regional differences

Energy unaffordability has increased slightly across four waves, with 11% of respondents in Wave 4 reporting that they could not afford their daily energy needs, compared to 8% in Wave 1. This difference is statistically significant. Regionally, respondents from the Atlantic provinces (21%) and the Prairies (14-16%) report the highest rates of energy unaffordability, while nationally, energy is least affordable for respondents in small urban (16%) and rural (15%) areas.

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians experienced more extreme weather in the last two months

Nearly three quarters of respondents (72%) report having experienced at least one kind of extreme weather in the past two months, up from two thirds (61%) in Wave 3. There were significant increases in the three most commonly reported weather-related events: windstorms (50%), power outages (37%), and periods of excessive heat (34%). Alongside more general seasonal changes, much of this pattern likely relates to the major thunderstorm (derecho) in ON/QC on May 21, which had high winds that caused widespread power outages. Other significant increases were reported for flooding (14%), tornadoes (12%), shortages of essential supplies (9%), droughts (4%), and hurricanes (2%).

Canadians engaged in more adaptation behaviour in the last two months

More than half (57%) of respondents report having engaged in NO adaptation behaviours in the last two months, a significant decrease from Wave 3 (66%), but comparable to Waves 1 and 2. There has been a significant increase in information-seeking behaviour for extreme weather events (30%) and climate change impacts (24%), and in leaving home because of weather-related risks (2%). This pattern likely relates to seasonal changes in extreme weather and, in part, to the major thunderstorm (derecho) in ON/QC on May 21. All other changes were non-significant.

Low follow-through on improving emergency preparedness, more unplanned insurance purchases

Overall, less than one third of homeowners who had intended to improve their household emergency preparedness in the next year in Wave 1 have followed through six months later, similar to the intention-action gap observed for EVs and home retrofits. Similar to those behaviours, follow-through varies by the type of preparation, with highest follow-through for weather-related home/tenant insurance. A further share of homeowners spontaneously improved their emergency preparedness, meaning that they expressed no intention to prepare in Wave 1 but have done so six months later. Notably, spontaneous purchases of home/tenant insurance for both flooding and other weather-related risks exceeded those linked to prior intention, suggesting that forward planning is much less important than other factors in purchasing insurance.

8. Policy Priorities

Mitigating climate change is one of the top three policy priorities supported by Canadians

When asked to select 5 policy priorities from 10 options, respondents’ top choices were strengthening the health care system (74% selected), reducing the cost of living (64%), and mitigating climate change (57%). The percentage who chose mitigating climate change is comparable to the share who strongly agree that climate change is a threat that needs urgent action (58%). However, this percentage is at the high end of the range of strong support for specific mitigation policies (16 to 58%), as captured in Waves 1 to 3, suggesting that support for specific climate change mitigation policies tends to be lower than support for mitigation in the abstract. When asked how they would allocate $10 million across their top priorities, the same three priorities attracted the most funding, on average.

Canadians make trade-offs between climate-related and economic policy priorities

To understand how respondents prioritize different policies, the strength of their correlations was assessed – that is, which policies tend to be selected together and which do not. Respondents who selected mitigating climate change were more likely to choose adapting to climate change, reconciliation, and protecting and restoring nature, and less likely to choose reducing taxes, creating jobs, and growing Canada’s economy among their top five priorities. This suggests that people who prioritize climate change mitigation tend also to prioritize adaptation, reconciliation and nature-related policies, and are willing to make trade-offs with fiscal and economic goals. The opposite is true for those who prioritize reducing taxes.

Figure 28. Strength of relationships between different policy priorities

Reading the Graph: This “heat map” shows the strength of relationships between different policy priorities, as indicated by the intersecting row and column labels. Blue squares represent a positive relationship (i.e., respondents tend to group them together when selecting priorities), while red squares represent a negative relationship (i.e., respondents may select one policy or the other, but tend not to select both). The shade indicates the strength of the effect. For example, the top row shows that respondents who selected "mitigating climate change“ were more likely to select "adapting to climate change” and less likely to select “reducing taxes”.

9. Trust & Information

Trust on climate change is steady, with limited trust in GC

Scientists (54-75%) and family and friends (72%) remain the most trusted groups to make good decisions on climate change. Trust in scientists is elaborated on Figure 29. Trust in family and friends has increased significantly since Wave 3 (from 69% to 72%), back to levels observed in Wave 1. Trust in all levels of governments on climate change remains low and stable, with no significant changes between waves.

Government scientists are less trusted than academics, more trusted than industry scientists

To understand whether there are differences in trust in scientists across sectors, respondents were randomized into four groups, each was asked about one of four kinds of scientists: government, academic/university, non-profit/think thank, or industry. There is significant variation in trust in scientists across sectors. Academic/university scientists are significantly more trusted (75%) than non-profit/think tank scientists (68%) and government scientists (68%), while industry scientists are least trusted (54%). All apparent differences are statistically significant, except between government and non-profit/think tank scientists. Of note, scientists in all four sectors were judged less trustworthy than were “scientists” in general in Wave 3.

Distrust of GC’s integrity and efficiency on climate change has risen

Two thirds of respondents distrust the federal government’s integrity on climate change, with 69% agreeing that the government is too influenced by industry. Since Wave 3, there has been a significant increase in those who disagree that the government spends money efficiently on climate change initiatives (59%). In contrast, in a related question in Wave 2, most respondents (54%) disagreed that government is wasting money on climate change. Only one third (31%) agree that the federal government is competent enough to deal with climate change, and one quarter (26%) agree that the government listens to what ordinary people think about climate change.

Canadian TV and radio, and friends and family are the most common information sources

Canadian TV and radio channels, including their websites, continue to be the most common source of information for Canadians (51% always or frequently), with friends and family second (45%). Differences between waves are not significant.

YouTube and Facebook lead social media as information sources

Social media is used much less frequently as a general source of information than traditional media. Of the social media platforms, YouTube (25% always or frequently) and Facebook (20%) are the most frequently used. Analysis of previous waves found that all social media platforms are more commonly used by those 18 – 34 years old, except that Facebook is most frequently used by those over 35. YouTube and Twitter are more commonly used by men, while Instagram and TikTok are more commonly used by women.

10. Regional Profiles