The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 5

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. In Wave 1, the oversample was used to extend the general population sample to 2,000 participants.

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

In general, attention paid to climate change has increased slightly over the last few months. But there is a persistent disparity between Canadians' high willingness to take pro-climate action, on one hand, and their lower perceptions of social norms and the potential impact of their actions, on the other.

Change Perceptions: While two thirds of Canadians strongly agree that climate change is real, only half strongly agree the cause is human activity. There are also relatively lower levels of agreement that climate change will have local and near-term effects, though with a significant increase from April. Levels of worry, anger, and anxiety in response to climate change have worsened since April, and hope has continued to decline slowly. While respondents are generally willing to take pro-climate action, fewer say they are expected to do so or that their actions are impactful. This may help explain the widespread intention-action gap.

Mitigation Behaviours: While engagement in most mitigation behaviours has remained relatively stable over time, high-emitting air travel has increased. Use of active and public transportation is rising, but people continue to rely far more on personal vehicles. Three quarters of respondents spend time in nature at least once a week, and most say their favoured natural spaces are within walking distance.

Adaptation Behaviours: Overall, slightly fewer respondents say they recently experienced extreme weather than said so in June 2022. Heat events, drought and wildfire smoke have increased, while windstorms, power outages and flooding have decreased. Fewer respondents also report having engaged in climate change adaptation behaviours, down from the highs reported in June 2022 that were likely related to May's ON/QC derecho and spring flooding in MB.

Climate Policy Support: Half to three quarters of respondents support pro-climate and environmental policies. Clean electricity, regardless of whether nuclear power is an explicit part of the energy mix, receives the highest support. Almost two thirds of respondents support a national price on carbon, a significant increase from April. This may be due, in part, to the easing of gasoline prices since June. Though a majority of households in eligible provinces should have received a Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) in July, many respondents say they have not heard anything about the program in the last two months and that, to their knowledge, nobody in their households received a payment. Low awareness may have implications for carbon pricing support.

Knowledge and Misinformation: Most respondents say they know a “moderate” amount about climate change, and that they follow news about climate change at least a little. Almost three quarters of respondents are very or extremely concerned about the spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Overall, many respondents accurately discerned true and false statements relating to climate change. However, performance was notably lower for some statements, suggesting common misperceptions (e.g., about Canada’s per capita emissions, the corporate concentration of emissions) that may lower the perception of individual responsibility for climate action. There is also low awareness of the extent to which Canada generates electricity from renewable sources.

Information Sources and Trust: Scientists and international climate authorities are the most trusted sources of information on climate change. Notably, the information sources used most often by respondents as reported in previous waves (i.e., social media, friends and family) were among the least trusted. Only half of respondents trust the Government of Canada to make decisions in the best interests of Canadians, with lower trust in rural areas and Alberta. While the government is moderately trusted as a source of information on climate change, most respondents distrust its integrity in this area (i.e., too influenced by industry).

4. Considerations

Data Collected: August 16 – September 6, 2022

Sample Size: 2,061

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants. Prior to and during the Wave 5 data collection period:

• Notable weather events in Canada included heat waves in BC, and wildfires in BC, Alberta, and Newfoundland. Globally, severe heat waves in Europe also made the news.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian oil and gas continued. Volatile energy prices and geopolitical concerns generated ongoing calls to increase oil, gas and hydrogen production in Canada, and to accelerate the transition towards renewable energy in Europe. Meanwhile, average gasoline prices eased in Canada, down from 207.2 cents per litre in June to 169.6 in August.
• On July 15, the first Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) was delivered to eligible residents in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario. The quarterly benefit is meant to help offset the cost of federal carbon pricing. It replaces the Climate Action Incentive Credit, which was previously claimed annually on personal income tax returns.
• On August 23, Canada established a hydrogen alliance with Germany, which is intended to facilitate the export of green hydrogen to Germany starting in 2025. No green hydrogen plants are currently operational in Canada, but several projects are underway to build wind-powered hydrogen facilities in Atlantic Canada.
• Several provinces expressed concerns with the federal carbon tax. Manitoba, one of the four provinces currently under the federal carbon pricing plan, called for suspension of the federal carbon tax, and Alberta and Saskatchewan have both previously criticized the tax. Atlantic provinces, which are not currently under the federal carbon pricing plan, also requested an extension to submit their provincial carbon pricing plans, citing concerns over price increases that would result from matching their carbon pricing to the federal level.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

While most Canadians believe in climate change, fewer recognize its causes and consequences

Three quarters (74%) of respondents in Wave 5 (Aug 2022) strongly agree that climate change is real. However, fewer than two thirds (60%) strongly agree that it will have serious negative consequences. Crucially, only half (55%) strongly agree that climate change is primarily caused by human activity. Since Wave 1 (Dec 2021), climate change beliefs and most risk perceptions have been relatively stable, suggesting that they have been somewhat unaffected by seasonal or contextual factors. In contrast, the share who strongly agree that climate change will affect their local area has increased significantly since Wave 3 (Apr 2022), likely due to the widespread impact of the derecho (severe windstorm) in Ontario and Quebec on May 21st.

Negative emotional responses to climate change have increased since April, hope still decreasing

Respondents’ negative emotional responses to climate change have been increasing slowly since Wave 3 (Apr 2022). Half (49%) of respondents remain very or extremely worried, while a third feel very or extremely angry (34%) and anxious (33%). A small percentage (11%) feel very or extremely confused. Notably, those who say they do not believe in climate change are less likely to report confusion (9% moderately or higher) than those who believe (30%). This suggests that those who do not believe in climate change feel they are clear-eyed on the subject, and are likely to resist efforts to change their views. People who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority (10%). There continues to be a slow but steady decline in hope since Wave 2 (Feb 2022).

Most Canadians are willing to act, but fewer feel expected to act or that their actions are impactful

Three quarters (76%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that collective action can limit further climate change, while a similar share (73%) are willing to act to limit it. But only two thirds (64%) believe their actions are impactful (i.e., self-efficacy). Somewhat fewer perceive that people close to them expect them to act (60%), or that their family and friends are taking action (54%) (i.e., social norms). The disparity between willingness to act and perceived social norms may help explain the widespread and persistent gap between pro-climate intention and action as documented in Wave 4. Perceived self-efficacy, willingness to act, and perceived pro-climate social norms have increased slightly since Wave 4 (Jun 2022).

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

High reliance on private vehicles, but other modes of transport have been increasing since February

Dependence on private vehicles remains high, with 87% of respondents using them to get around at least once a week. The percentage of respondents who report using other forms of transportation has been increasing since Wave 2 (Feb 2022). This may relate to warmer weather in the summer months, and a change in routines due to the easing of lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions in the intervening months. Notably, active transportation (e.g., walking, running, biking) has increased since Wave 4 (Jun 2022), a statistically significant change.

Air travel has continued increasing overall, but with a small dip in short flights

Flying has a major climate impact despite its infrequency relative to other modes of transport. More than a fifth (22%) of respondents have taken at least one flight in the past two months, with 15% reporting at least one short flight ( <5 hours), and 11% reporting at least one long flight (>5 hours). The slight decrease in short flights since June has been more than offset by a continued increase in long flights, which may relate to pent-up demand for long-distance travel during the pandemic. Future waves will track whether there is an increase in business travel in the fall after the end of the summer leisure travel season.

Food and waste behaviours remain steady over time

Recycling (93% always or frequently) and reducing food waste (77%) remain two of the most common pro-environmental actions, while eating a more plant-based diet remains the lowest at 34%. Though it is a high-impact climate action, eating a plant-based diet remains relatively uncommon when compared with lower-impact actions like recycling or reducing plastic use.

Energy unaffordability has decreased slightly, differs by region and community size

Energy unaffordability decreased from Wave 4 (Jun 2022), with 9% of respondents reporting that they could not afford enough energy to meet their daily needs. This followed a slow but steady increase from Dec 2021 to Jun 2022. The recent drop may relate to the easing of gasoline prices, with the national average price decreasing from 207.2 cents per litre in June to 169.6 in August. Regionally, respondents from the Atlantic provinces (12%) and the Prairies (11-12%) report the highest rates of energy unaffordability. Nationally, energy is least affordable for respondents in rural (15%) and small urban (11%) areas.

Most Canadians spend time in parks or natural spaces at least once a week, a quarter visit daily

Over three quarters (77%) of respondents report spending time in a park or natural space at least once a week in the last two months, with one quarter (28%) reporting that they do so daily. This high frequency of use highlights the importance of access to quality parks and natural spaces, and likely reflects an annual summer peak in outdoor activity that will be tracked in future surveys as the seasons change. Residents of Quebec report significantly lower rates of daily use of parks and natural spaces than do residents of other regions, while rural residents report significantly greater daily use than do residents of towns and cities.

Most Canadians favour parks and natural spaces less than 15 minutes away, accessing them on foot

Almost three quarters (73%) of respondents live within 15 minutes of a park or natural space where they enjoy spending time, including a third (31%) who live within 5 minutes, suggesting that most respondents have decent access to local parks and natural spaces. Nearly two thirds (60%) travel there by foot, with less than a third (28%) using a private vehicle and only 1% using public transit. Only 2% of respondents report not spending any time in parks or other natural spaces.

Most Canadians see their favoured local parks and natural spaces as average or higher quality

Two fifths (41%) of respondents think that the park or natural space close to their home, where they enjoy spending time, is of higher than average quality compared to others in their part of the country. Another half (45%) perceive it to be about average quality, while only 12% see it as lower than average. A greater share of respondents in British Columbia/Yukon (53%) report higher than average quality, while this share is smaller in the Prairies (32-34%) and Atlantic provinces (42%).

Gas-powered lawnmowers still most common, but strong intention to adopt electric mowers

Almost three quarters of respondents (71%) use a mower to maintain their home’s lawn. Gas-powered lawnmowers are most common (62%), though a third (31%) use a corded or battery-powered electric lawnmower. Twice as many respondents say they would now choose to buy an electric lawnmower (55%) as would buy a gas-powered lawnmower (26%), suggesting an imminent shift in the market. Of those who opted to enter an open-text answer (3%), a handful indicated that they would “get rid” of their lawn in favour of alternative landscaping rather than purchasing another lawnmower.

Electric lawnmowers seen as quieter and greener, but concerns about batteries, power and cost

All respondents who reported having a lawn maintained with a mower (71%) were asked an open-text question about the perceived advantages and disadvantages of battery-powered lawnmowers. The most frequently reported advantage of battery-powered electric lawnmowers is that they are quieter (24%), while a common theme across the other top advantages is their lower environmental impact (e.g., fewer emissions, doesn’t use gas). The three most frequently reported disadvantages are battery-related, including capacity (30%), environmental impact (24%), and charging time (21%). There are also concerns about the power (16%) and cost (12%) of battery-powered mowers.

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians have recently experienced more excessive heat, drought, and wildfire smoke

Nearly three quarters (76%) of respondents report having experienced at least one kind of extreme weather event in the past two months, up from 72% in Wave 4 (Jun 2022). Of the three most common extreme weather events, periods of excessive heat increased (59%), while windstorms (32%) and power outages (37%) decreased. This survey was fielded at the height of summer, accounting for the reported heat events, while the May 21st derecho in ON and QC likely accounts for the spike in windstorms and power outages Wave 4. Increases were also reported for droughts (12%) and wildfire smoke (9%), while flooding decreased (8%). 

Canadians engaged in less adaptation-related behaviour in the last two months

More than half (59%) of respondents report having engaged in NO adaptation behaviours in the last two months, a slight increase from Wave 4 (57%). There has been a decrease in all self-reported adaptation-related behaviours since Wave 4 (Jun 2022), likely due to the absence of recent extreme weather events on the scale of the Ontario/Quebec derecho on May 21st and spring flooding in Manitoba. The most common behaviours are information-seeking about extreme weather events (28%) and climate change impacts (22%), alongside actions taken to protect homes against weather-related risks (7%).

8. Support for Climate Policies

High support for clean electricity, slight rebound in support for carbon pricing

In this wave, respondents were asked about a small selection of policies of timely interest. Except for clean electricity, all have been asked in previous waves. Overall, clean electricity has the highest total support at 77%. The inclusion or exclusion of nuclear in the description of clean energy sources has no meaningful effect on support. Supporting workers and their communities in transitioning away from non-renewable fossil energy production (74%) and limiting GHG emissions from oil and gas production (70%) have slightly less support than in Wave 1 (Dec 2021). In contrast, support for carbon pricing has rebounded slightly since Wave 3 (Apr 2022), with support for a national carbon price up by 6% and support for increasing the national carbon price up by 4%, which may relate to the recent drop in gasoline prices.

Awareness of Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) is relatively low, even in eligible provinces

Climate Action Incentive Payments (CAIP) were distributed to eligible Canadians in July 2022, shortly before Wave 5 data collection began. While awareness was assessed for all regions, only residents of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario are eligible to receive CAIP installments. Though these eligible regions have the highest awareness of the CAIP (55-68%), about a third (29-38%) of residents report not having heard, read, or seen anything about CAIP in the last two months. This suggests that many eligible CAIP recipients are not aware of the program. 

Sample sizes for the territories are too small to have meaningfully shifted the overall results for each region.

Many respondents in eligible provinces are unaware that they received a CAIP payment

Given the eligibility requirements for the CAIP, nearly all households in Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Ontario should have received a CAIP installment in July 2022. However, only half (45-55%) of respondents in these provinces report that they or someone in their household received a CAIP payment.1 Around a third (29-42%) of respondents in eligible provinces said that they had not received one, while a further minority (11-15%) were uncertain. Overall, there seems to be confusion about the CAIP. 

Sample sizes for the territories are too small to have meaningfully shifted the overall results for each region.

9. Knowledge & Misinformation

Canadians who disbelieve in climate change report highest self-assessed level of climate knowledge

A majority of respondents (54%) say they know a moderate amount about climate change, while a third (32%) say they know a lot and 13% say they know a little. When broken down by belief in climate change, an interesting pattern emerges. Self-professed knowledge of climate change is far higher among those who disbelieve in it. Two thirds (64%) of those who disagree that climate change is real say they know a lot about it, significantly higher than the other groups. Those who agree climate change is real were half as likely (30%) to claim such knowledge. This suggests that those disbelieve in climate change are likely to resist information-based efforts to change their views. In contrast, people who neither believe nor disbelieve are significantly more likely to report low levels of knowledge, so information may have more effect.

Common misperception of Canada’s renewable energy sources and per-capita GHG emissions

Overall, respondents were able to correctly assess most of the accurate (i.e., evidence-based) statements as very or somewhat accurate. However, two such statements were mistakenly rated as inaccurate by more than half of respondents. More than half (55%) of respondents incorrectly rated as inaccurate the claim that Canada has higher per capita GHG emissions than China. This perception may contribute to the view that climate change mitigation is predominantly the responsibility of other countries, like China, which may lower individual willingness to act and support for domestic climate policies. Half (53%) also incorrectly rated as inaccurate the claim that more than two thirds of Canada’s electricity comes from renewable energy sources.

Common misperception of the concentration of corporate responsibility, which could deter action

Similarly, most respondents were able to correctly assess the inaccurate (i.e., non-evidence-based) statements as very or somewhat inaccurate. The most common misconception is that 100 corporations are responsible for 70% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Similar to the mistaken perception of Canada’s per capita GHG emissions relative to China’s, the belief that a small group of corporations produce the vast majority of GHG emissions could lessen willingness to take individual action and to support climate policies that rely on individual behaviour change. 

Few Canadians closely follow climate news, with strong majority concerned about misinformation

Most Canadians do not follow climate-related news particularly closely, but a strong majority are very concerned about the broader issue of mis/disinformation. Just 13% of respondents say they follow news on climate change very closely, though the vast majority (87%) follow it at least a little. When asked about their concern for the spread of mis/disinformation online, three quarters (73%) report that they are extremely or very concerned, and only 7% say they are not at all concerned.

10. Information Sources & Trust

A third of Canadians use Facebook or YouTube at least once a day

Almost all respondents (95%) use some form of social media at least once a day. Facebook and YouTube are the most commonly used platforms, with 38% and 32% of respondents reporting that they use them daily. Notably, in Wave 4 (Jun 2022) more people reported using YouTube always or frequently than Facebook. Here, using a more specific scale (i.e., times per day/month), the order is reversed.

Scientists and international authorities most trusted for climate info, social media highly distrusted

Scientists and international authorities are the most trusted sources of information on climate change, with 83% and 76% of respondents moderately or completely trusting them. These groups are also far more completely trusted than any others. Federal and provincial government briefings and websites are trusted by about half of respondents (56% and 53%, respectively) and are distrusted by a quarter (27%). While social media is commonly used, it is also highly distrusted. Nobody completely trusts social media for climate information, while 60% distrust. When respondents were asked in Wave 1 (Dec 2021) where they come across climate-related information, friends and family were the third most common source. But here, that group is trusted (42%) much less than most other sources.

Only half of respondents trust the Canadian federal government, with regional variation

Overall, 48% of respondents say that they moderately or completely trust the Canadian federal government. This level of trust is a little lower than reported levels of trust in the federal government as a source of information on climate change (56%). Residents of Alberta reported significantly more distrust than those of other provinces, while residents of Ontario reported more distrust than those of Quebec. Residents of small cities/towns and rural areas report significantly more distrust than those of large cities and their suburbs. Wave 5 also assessed facets of trust in government on the issue of climate change, which may provide some insight into potential drivers of overall distrust in government.

Two thirds of Canadians distrust GC integrity on climate change

Almost two thirds of respondents (61%) agree or strongly agree that the federal government is too influenced by industry regarding climate change. Around half of respondents distrust the government to spend money efficiently on climate change (52%), competently deal with the issue (47%), listen to ordinary people (47%), and make climate-related decisions fairly (44%). The relatively high levels of distrust in government integrity, competence, responsiveness, and fairness could be limiting overall trust in government. Half (56%) of respondents say they trust the federal government as a source of information on climate change, precisely counter-balancing the 44% of respondents who here report that they distrust the government to provide all relevant information about climate change to the public.

11. Regional Profile