PARCA Tracking Survey Wave 3 & 4

Background

PARCA’s ongoing national surveying utilizes public opinion research with large, nationally representative samples of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this research will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action. The study’s main objectives are to:

1. Assess baseline level of Canadians’ knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and how/whether these evolve over time. Using advanced methods to understand the “why” and “so what” behind the survey responses.
2. Assess baseline level of Canadians’ self-reported intentions and levels of engagement in key pro-climate behaviours + levels of support for key government climate change and energy policies.
3. Analyze key factors that may be determining / predicting / correlating with intentions, behaviours, and policy support.

After the initial Longitudinal Study (Dec 2021 to Feb 2023; 8 waves), PARCA launched two survey series to continue monitoring and exploring climate-related factors: the Tracking Survey, which measures key beliefs and attitudes about climate change, engagement in mitigation and adaptation behaviours, and support for climate and environmental policies, and the Emerging Topics Survey, which explores 2 to 3 new topic areas each wave (e.g., nuclear energy, forests, and climate change). The first Tracking Survey fielded in August 2023, and the first Emerging Topics Survey fielded in February 2024.

Methodology

Data collection:

• Wave 3 – December 4 to 19, 2023
• Wave 4 – February 20 to March 13, 2024

Number of participants: 2,750 (Wave 3) and 2,252 (Wave 4)*

Canadians aged 18 years and older, all of whom are new respondents. Wave 3 included oversamples of 248 youth, 305 Indigenous peoples, and 286 other racialized people. Wave 4 included an oversample of 252 Northern Canadians.

The descriptive data has been weighted by region, age group, gender, and education to ensure that the sample distribution reflects that of the actual Canadian adult population according to Statistics Canada census data (2021).

Participants were recruited in partnership with Forum Research, through nationally representative online panels that may have used a combination of different recruitment methods (probability; non-probability panels). It is not appropriate to calculate a margin of error in such circumstances. For reference only, a probability-based sample of similar size (i.e., 2000) would have a margin of error of +/-2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

*More details can be found in the Sample Characteristics section.

Considerations

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context prior to and during data collection (i.e., fall 2023, winter 2023/24), which may have influenced the responses of survey participants:

• Amid widespread reporting that 2023/24 was the warmest Canadian winter on record, extreme weather events such as winter storms and flooding affected much of Canada. In early January, Albertans experienced a cold snap and were asked to conserve energy, prompting doubts in the media about the reliability of renewable energy. Amid projections that the 2024 wildfire season would be devastating, Alberta declared an early start to its wildfire season.
• Climate negotiations (COP28) were held in the United Arab Emirates from November 30–December 12, 2023, producing the first-ever international commitment to move away from fossil fuels. Media covered negotiations to “phase out” versus “scale down” fossil fuels.
• Oil prices were affected by continued sanctions against Russian oil and gas, and by the conflict in Israel.
• Multiple federal policy changes occurred, including the announcement of methane reduction regulations (Dec 4), an emissions cap for Canada’s oil and gas sector (Dec 7), a $16 million contribution to a global “loss and damage” fund (Dec 12), the New Electric Vehicle Availability Standard to support 100% EV sales by 2035 (Dec 19), and a new low-income energy retrofit program to replace the Greener Homes Grant Program (Feb 13).
• Alberta’s seven-month moratorium on wind and solar projects ended Feb 29, and the provincial government announced a new $200 registration tax on EVs, and a $165 million fund to support livestock workers affected by extreme weather.
• Carbon pricing received heightened public attention throughout this period, including around announcements to make home heating oil exempt from the carbon price for 3 years (Oct 26) and to rename the Climate Action Incentive Payment as the Canada Carbon Rebate (Feb 14). Further, the Saskatchewan government announced that it would no longer remit carbon price revenues to the GoC (Oct 30).

Climate Change Attitudes and Perceptions

Strong agreement with basic climate change statements has stabilized in recent months

PARCA data suggest that Canadians’ beliefs that climate change is real, human caused, and an urgent threat have stabilized following a steady decline from Aug 2022 to Oct 2023. However, levels remain substantially lower than they were earlier in 2022. Overall, between Aug 2022 and Mar 2024, the data suggest: 11% decline in strong agreement that climate change is real; 10% decline in strong agreement that human activity is its main cause; 9% decline in strong agreement that climate change will bring about serious negative consequences; 8% decline in strong agreement that respondents’ local area will be influenced by climate change.

Belief in the reality of climate change remains relatively high and stable

A large majority (83%) of Canadians continue to somewhat or strongly agree that climate change is real, and this proportion remains the same as it was this time last year. The proportion of Canadians who somewhat or strongly disagree that climate change is real remains quite small (8%) but stable over time. Similarly, only 9% of Canadians remain unsure (neither agree nor disagree) about the reality of climate change.

Agreement that climate change is primarily caused by human activity is also high and stable

Roughly three quarters (74%) of Canadians somewhat or strongly agree that human activity is the main cause of climate change, and this proportion remains the same as it was at the same time last year; however, it should be noted that strong agreement has declined during this period. Between March 2023 and March 2024, the percentage of Canadians who strongly disagree that human activity is the main cause of climate change declined by over half (12% vs. 5%). Conversely, the percentage of Canadians who remain uncommitted in their belief that human activity is the main cause of climate change has doubled from 6% to 12% in that time.

Willingness to act, belief in collective action, and perceptions of climate action have also stabilized

From Dec 2021 to Oct 2023, there was a general decline in the share of respondents who strongly or somewhat agreed that collective action can limit further climate change – down 10% since December 2021. A similar share (67%) are themselves willing to act to limit climate change – down 7% in the same period. Fewer than two thirds (63%) believe their own actions are impactful (i.e., self-efficacy), which has been relatively stable across waves. And fewer still perceive that people close to them expect them to act (49%), or that their family and friends are taking action (48%) (i.e., social norms) – down 13% and 12%, respectively.

Steady decline in the perceived responsibility of all actors to take more climate action

A majority of respondents (69-72%) believe that all key actors need to do somewhat or a lot more to help limit climate change. However, since 2021, across key actors — private industry in Canada, the federal government, the Canadian population, and international organizations — the perceived responsibility to do more continues to decline. Importantly, the perceived responsibility to act is more equally distributed across these actors than ever before.

Stronger emotional responses in recent months, including being overwhelmed or confused

Relative to Aug 2023, more respondents report feeling very or extremely overwhelmed (31%) and confused (24%), but also hopeful (24%) about the issue of climate change. Worry (45%) and anxiety (33%) remain the most prevalent climate change emotions, but their reported prevalence among Canadians has not changed as much since Aug 2023. Roughly one-quarter (27%) of Canadians report feeling very or extremely angry. Notably, since Dec 2023, there has been a general uptick in all emotional responses to climate change. The biggest increase (7%) has been the share of Canadians who reported feeling very or extremely confused about climate change.

PARCA has previously identified 5 climate change segments that strongly predict climate intentions, individual actions, and support for collective action

Legend: ⭡⭡ Most; ⭡ More; ~ Neutral; ⭣ Less; ⭣⭣ Least

Supportive segment remains largest; increase in Ambivalent segment since March 2023

Since Aug 2022, there have been shifts in the proportion of Canadians in several of the attitudes- and beliefs-based segments, with fewer Canadians in the Committed and Supportive segments, and more in the Ambivalent and Indifferent segments. However, these shifts have stabilized since Dec 2023.​​As of Mar 2024, the decline in Committed (-7%) and Supportive (-4%) segments suggests that fewer Canadians are motivated to take climate action than in Dec 2021. Meanwhile, more people feel Ambivalent (+8%) and Indifferent (+3%) about climate change and climate action. Notably, the share of the Resistant segment has not changed much over time.​

Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

Slight increase in use of public transportation, while other modes remain stable

In Mar 2024, one-third of respondents (32%) reported using public transit at least once per week, a 6% increase from Aug 2023. Most respondents (70%) reported using private vehicles at least once per week, making it the dominant mode followed by active transport (55%). However, unlike public transport, the use of these modes remained relatively stable. Use of inter-city trains or buses instead of flying and e-bikes or e-scooters (at least once a week) were least prevalent at 16% and 13%, respectively.

A fifth of Canadians have purchased or leased a personal vehicle in the last year; half were used

In Mar 2024, a fifth of respondents (19%) indicated that they had bought or leased a personal vehicle in the last 12 months. The majority of respondents (61%) indicated that it had been more than 12 months since their last lease or purchase, whereas a fifth (19%) indicated they had never bought or leased a personal vehicle. Among respondents who said they had previously bought or leased a personal vehicle, half (51%) were new vehicles and half (49%) were used. These results remain unchanged from June 2022.

Slight increase in electric and hybrid vehicle ownership and intention to purchase

From Dec 2021 to Mar 2024, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of respondents who reported that they own a hybrid vehicle (from 7% to 10%) or an electric vehicle (from 5% to 7%). In addition, among respondents who do not own either type of vehicle, the intention to purchase one within the next year has also increased slightly over this period (hybrid vehicle – 12% to 15%; electric vehicle – 13% to 14%).

Air travel has continued to increase since pandemic-related lows in 2021

Air travel has continued to increase over time. In Mar 2024, more than a third (37%) of respondents reported taking a flight of any kind in the last two months, an increase of 15% from Dec 2022. However, the earliest waves of data on flight frequency were collected when pandemic restrictions were still in effect (i.e., Dec 2021 and Feb 2022). That baseline data therefore reflects a period when demand was unusually low.

Many Canadians are trying to reduce food waste, but plant-based diets remain uncommon

Over half of respondents (57%) report always or frequently making efforts to reduce the amount of plastic they use, and close to three quarters (71%) report always or frequently making efforts to reduce wasted food. These are slight declines from Dec 2021. Relative to Aug 2023, there was a small increase in the number of respondents who always or frequently adjusted their thermostat to save energy based on the season (54% in Dec 2023, 51% in Mar 2024). In Mar 2024, a fifth (19%) of respondents said that they always or frequently ate a mostly plant-based diet, while a quarter (25%) indicated that they always or frequently made efforts to eat a more plant-based diet.

Canadians report having spent less time outside in parks and other natural spaces this past winter

In Mar 2024, 55% of respondents spent time outside in parks or other natural spaces at least once a week, 10% lower than a year prior. Less than one third of respondents (30%) talked with their family or friends about climate change on a weekly basis, which has been stable over time. Less than half (44%) reported not eating meat at least one day a week, which remains relatively unchanged since Aug 2023. Most Canadians (62%) avoided using single-use items by bringing their own reusable items at least once per week.

Slight increase in the frequency of circular economy behaviours among Canadians

There were slight increases in the share of respondents who reported frequently engaging in circular economy behaviours. In Mar 2024, nearly a quarter (23%) of respondents reported repairing products to extend their lifespan about once a week or more, up from 20% in Jun 2021. A fifth (21%) of respondents reported buying secondhand, repaired, refurbished, or remanufactured items about once a week or more, up from 14% in Jun 2021.

Slight increase in residential solar panel ownership; decline in new or improved insulation

From Dec 2021 to Mar 2024, there has been a small but gradual increase in the number of homeowners who say they have installed solar panels at their home or residence; overall, however, fewer than 1 in 10 homeowners (9%) have solar panels, and even fewer (7%) have the intention to purchase them in the next year. In that same period, there has a been a decline in homeowners who say that they have purchased new or improved insulation for their home or residence (35% in Dec 2021, 28% in Mar 2024). Variability over time may, in part, be caused by changes in how respondents interpret questions. For instance, reports of “new or improved” insulation may decrease the longer it has been since the upgrade.

Over 1/3 of homeowners have a smart thermostat; half have energy-efficient windows or doors

In Mar 2024, a third (36%) of homeowners reported that they had a smart or adaptive thermostat in their home, and a further 15% said they were planning on purchasing one in the next year. About half of homeowners (48%) indicated that their home had energy efficient windows and doors, and 14% reported that they were planning on purchasing some in the next year.

Heat pump ownership remains relatively stable but intent to purchase has increased

Between Dec 2021 and Mar 2024, reported heat pump ownership has remained relatively stable, between 16-19% of homeowners; however, there has been a 4% increase in the share of homeowners who indicate they intend to purchase one in the next year. Solar water heater ownership and intention to purchase increased between Dec 2021 and Dec 2023, although only 7% of homeowners report that they currently own one.

More Canadians are finding it difficult to afford enough energy to meet their daily needs

In Mar 2024, nearly half (45%) of respondents said that they could either not afford to meet their daily energy needs (8%), or could only meet them with difficulty (37%). The share who said they were only able to meet their energy needs with difficulty has increase by 8% increase since Aug 2023. The share of respondents who reported being unable to afford their daily energy needs has not changed much over time.

Energy unaffordability is highest in remote and rural areas, and in Atlantic Canada

Across regions, Atlantic Canada has the highest proportion of residents who say that energy is not affordable (14%), or that they are only able to meet their daily energy needs with difficulty (49%). Across community size, remote areas have the highest proportion of respondents who say that energy is not affordable (20%). Respondents living in rural areas are the most likely to report that they are only able to meet their daily energy needs with difficulty (49%), with a total of 61% saying that they could either not afford enough energy or only with difficulty.

Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians experienced excessive cold, ice storms, and severe wind storms over the winter

This past winter brought with it an increase in the number of respondents experiencing seasonal extreme weather. As of Mar 2024, the most frequent experiences were periods of excessive cold (33%), severe wind storms (28%), power outages (23%), and ice storms (20%). Less than 10% of respondents reported shortages of essential supplies because of weather events.

Some Canadians still reported experiencing wildfires, smoke, and excessive heat

As expected, the winter months meant far fewer reported experiences of wildfire smoke (16%), periods of excessive heat (16%), wildfires (11%), flooding (8%), and droughts (8%) in the two months prior to the survey. Reports of excessive heat should be interpreted in the context of seasonal normals. Despite these expected declines, wildfires, wildfire smoke, and excessive heat were still a threat for some Canadians into early winter.

Increase in Canadians seeking support with negative emotions related to climate change

In Mar 2024, the share of respondents who sought support with negative emotions related to weather or climate change had doubled compared to two years earlier (from 8% to 16%). A quarter of Canadians (26%) reported looking for information on the risks or future impacts of climate change on their local area, but only half as many (12%) reported taking action to protect their homes against weather-related risks. Further analyses will examine the relationship between support seeking and other variables (e.g., affect or emotions towards climate change).

No increase over time in those with a disaster emergency plan

In Mar 2024, about a quarter (28%) of respondents reported having taken protective measures against poor air quality – like using a HEPA filter for air filtration due to health hazards such as wildfire smoke, environmental allergens, or smog. Another fifth (20%) were planning to do so in the next year. The proportion of respondents who have undertaken disaster emergency planning (e.g., establishing a safe meeting spot if families become separated) or intend to in the next year has remained relatively stable since Dec 2021. This suggests a large and persistent gap between intention and action for disaster emergency plans.

Less than half of Canadians have home/tenant insurance for flood or other weather-related risks

In Mar 2024, just under half of respondents (49%) had purchased home or tenant insurance for flood-related risk, down 8% from Dec 2021. Slightly fewer (46%) reported that they had purchased home or tenant insurance for additional weather-related risks like wildfire, wind, or ice damage, down 14% from Dec 2021. Conversely, the number of respondents who indicated that they intend to purchase home or tenant insurance for flood and other weather-related risks in the next year doubled (6% to 12%).

Only 2 in 5 Canadians have an emergency supply kit in their home

In Mar 2024, only 40% of respondents reported having an emergency supply kit at home, and 29% said they planned to get one within the next year. This is down from 46% and 30%, respectively, in Dec 2021. Similar to disaster emergency planning, there is a large and persistent gap between intention and action for emergency supply kits.

3 in 4 Canadians say they hold environmental values and pay attention to weather alerts

Three quarters (73%) of respondents somewhat or strongly agree that they act in environmentally friendly ways, which has stabilized in recent months after a decline in 2023. Three quarters (76%) of respondents also somewhat or strongly agree that they pay attention to extreme or hazardous weather alerts, but only half (51%) somewhat or strongly agree that they are the kind of person who prepares for extreme weather.

Support for Climate and Environmental Policies

Affordability and protecting future generations are top two concerns re: climate action proposals

Respondents were asked to indicate how important various considerations — some economic, others environmental — were when thinking about approaches to reducing the effects of climate change. Respondents reported that keeping consumer costs low, increasing job and economic growth, and protecting the quality of the environment for future generations were the most important considerations when thinking about proposals to reduce the effects of climate change, with nearly three quarters (72-74%) reporting that these considerations were very or extremely important to them.

Support for oil and gas cap reaches new low; slight increase in support for carbon capture

The percentage of respondents who say they somewhat or strongly support a cap on emissions for the oil and gas sector continued to decline from Dec 2021, reaching a new low (59%) in Mar 2024. In Mar 2024, just over half of respondents (54%) supported funding carbon capture, utilization, and storage project – a slight increase from 2023. Support for the carbon price and for increasing the price on carbon each year appears to have stabilized at 44% and 38%, respectively, after significantly declining in 2022 and 2023.

The majority of Canadians support nature-related policies, but support is lower than in early 2023

In Mar 2024, 80% of respondents said they supported planting two billion trees over the next ten years, 80% supported protecting and restoring ecosystems in Canada, 78% supported increasing the amount of greenspace in cities and towns, and 62% supported strengthening partnerships with Indigenous peoples to protect nature and respect their traditional knowledge.

Support for adaptation policies has continued to slip

In Dec 2023, two thirds of respondents (64%) said they somewhat or strongly support helping make vital Canadian infrastructure more resistant to extreme weather events, down from 87% in Dec 2021. Two thirds of respondents (64%) said they support compensating Canadians affected by weather-related disasters, down 14% from Dec 2021. Less than half of respondents (43%) said they supported compensating developing countries for damage created by climate change, down from 51% in Dec 2021. For all three policies, the decline in support was largely accounted for by growth in the proportion of respondents who neither support nor oppose the policies.

Support for zero-emission vehicle sales mandate and charging station network has also declined

From Apr 2022 to Mar 2024, support (somewhat/strongly) for creating a sales mandate to ensure that at least 20% of new cars and light-duty trucks sold by 2026 will be zero-emission vehicles dropped by 16%. During that same period, support (somewhat/strongly) for building a national network of charging stations for electric vehicles dropped by 17%. In both cases, there was an increase of 10% in the proportion of respondents who indicated they neither supported nor opposed the policies.

Support for Buy Clean Strategy varies based on how it is framed

Respondents were randomly assigned to view one of three versions of a Buy Clean Strategy asking about their level of support or opposition for using greener construction materials and designs in public infrastructure projects. The framing that was least supported (somewhat/strongly) indicated that greener construction materials and designs should be used, even if those materials cost more (63%). When framed as a requirement (i.e., regulated), without mention of cost, support went up by 4%. The framing that attracted the most support (72%) mentioned neither costs nor regulations.

Canadians think Buy Clean will increase jobs and decrease emissions, but it would come at a cost

In Dec 2023, respondents were asked about the potential impacts of the Buy Clean Strategy. 64% indicated that Buy Clean would increase (a little or a lot) the cost of building new public infrastructure, and 51% indicated it would increase the time needed to build it. Conversely, about half of respondents (47%) thought Buy Clean would increase jobs in Canada, and 41% said it would increase the competitiveness of Canadian industries. When building new public infrastructure, respondents anticipated that Buy Clean would decrease (a little or a lot) the environmental impact (29%), building-specific GHG emissions (37%), and Canada’s annual GHG emissions (40%).

Support for renewable energy resource development has stabilized after declining

There is high overall support for further development of renewable energy, ranging from 53-79%, depending on the resource. Between Aug 2023 and Mar 2024, support for further developing all renewables stabilized, and slightly increased in some cases, following a period of declining support between Dec 2022 and Aug 2023. As of Mar 2024, support (somewhat/strongly) was highest for solar (79%), wind (75%), and hydro (74%) development.

Increase in support for oil and coal development; stable for nuclear and natural gas

Overall, support for further development of non-renewable energy remains substantially lower than for renewable energy, especially for coal and oil. However, support (somewhat/ strongly) for further coal and oil development has increased since Dec 2021. Support (somewhat/strongly) for natural gas development has remained relatively stable over time (53-57%), and is highest among non-renewable energy sources. Support for nuclear energy development is 43%.

Information Sources and Trust

There has been little change in consumption of traditional media over the past year

Canadian media and websites are the dominant sources of information among respondents, with almost 2 in 3 consuming it on a weekly basis or more. Nearly half of respondents follow international media and websites at a similar frequency. In contrast, government and scientific output are used by far fewer respondents. The main trend across these sources of news and information — which largely come from more authoritative or expert sources — is no change in habits over time.

Steady increase in news/information from social media, AI chatbots, family/friends, among others

Across these sources, there was a general upward trend in weekly (or more frequent) usage over the past year: Internet search = +7% Friends and family = +11% Social media = +10% Podcasts = +7% AI chatbots = +9% The rise in usage of these arguably less authoritative sources, without a concurrent increase in usage of more authoritative sources, could indicate a greater need for Canadians to be able to judge the quality of information for themselves.

Most do not follow climate change news closely, but do encounter it frequently

As of Mar 2024, only 35% of Canadians reported following climate change news pretty or very closely, down from 43% in Aug 2023. Meanwhile, 59% of respondents reported encountering information about climate change at least weekly, down from 67% in Aug 2023. The discrepancy suggests a sizeable gap between respondents’ passive and active exposure to news and information about climate change.

Family/friends, scientists the most trusted groups to make good decisions about climate change

As of Mar 2024, most Canadians trust their family and friends (70%), scientists (67%), environmental groups (52%), and renewable energy companies (51%) to make good decisions about climate change.

The least trusted groups are government and non-renewable energy companies

As of Mar 2024, few Canadians (33%) trust non-renewable energy companies to make good decisions about climate change. Government sources were also generally not trusted. Distrust was highest for the federal government (35%), followed by provincial or territorial governments (33%), and local governments (28%).

Trust in the federal government regarding climate change is stable but low

As of Mar 2024, only about 1 in 3 Canadians somewhat or strongly agree that the federal government has competence (31%), acts with integrity (31%), or cares what ordinary people think (33%) regarding climate change. Competence, integrity, and benevolence (i.e., care and concern for citizen wellbeing) are the core dimensions of trustworthy systems.

Sample Characteristics

The weighted sample is representative of the Canadian adult population for gender, age, and region

Note: Values are weighted by age, gender, region, and education.

Note: Values are weighted by age, gender, region, and education.

Note: Values are weighted by age, gender, region, and education.