The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 1

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. In Wave 1, the oversample was used to extend the general population sample to 2,000 participants.

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

This report focuses on the results for the first wave of this research. 2,104 Canadians aged 18 and older were surveyed between December 13, 2021 and January 6, 2022. The data has been weighted by region, age group, gender, and education to ensure that the sample distribution reflects the actual Canadian adult population according to Statistics Canada census data.

As the participants were recruited through an online panel assembled through multi-phase probabilistic sampling, it is appropriate to have an associated margin of error. For a sample of this size, the margin of error is +/-2.14%, 19 times out of 20. We did not oversample specific populations in this wave, though this option is available to us and will be explored in Wave 2.

• Outlook on Climate Change: Half of Canadians are very worried about climate change, and few are hopeful. 
• Mitigation Behaviours: While most Canadians believe industry and institutions should be doing a lot more to limit further climate change, they are still open to making some changes in their own lives to help limit climate change. Most Canadians also recognize the potential of limiting further climate change through collective action.
• Adaptation Behaviours: Information-seeking is how Canadians most commonly prepare for the impacts of climate change. 
• Support for Environmental and Climate Policies: There are high levels of support for Canada to develop renewable resources and move away from oil and coal. The vast majority of respondents strongly support many climate policies, but not necessarily the most effectives ones for mitigation. 
• Trust & Information Sources: Majority of Canadians trust in scientists and friends on climate change, and distrust in all levels of government. Canadians are exposed to climate change information from a wide variety of sources, with Canadian TV, radio channels and their websites, being the most common source. 

4. Considerations

Data Collected: December 13, 2021 – January 6, 2022

Sample Size: 2,104 

When interpreting the PARCA results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants. During the Wave 1 data collection period:

• The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, had recently taken place from October 31 to November 13, 2021. A new global agreement – the Glasgow Climate Pact – was signed at the summit. For the first time, the agreement included a pact to "phase down" coal usage. Prime Minister Trudeau also urged all countries to agree to a global price on carbon during a panel discussion.
• Recent extreme weather events in Canada:
  • On November 14, 2021, torrential rainfall led to catastrophic flooding and landslides in the southern part of British Columbia. 
  • In December 2021, a polar vortex passed over Western Canada, resulting in periods of extreme cold.
  • Earlier in 2021, BC also experienced extreme heat waves, wildfires, and wildfire smoke.
• The Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, resulting in a Liberal minority government. The Liberal Party's election platform outlined its plan to tackle climate change, including eliminating subsidies for the oil and gas industry, developing tax credits for clean technologies, developing flood maps for high-risk areas, establishing new national parks, and other climate-related promises.

Please note that some figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and non-responses.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

Beliefs that climate change is real, human-caused, and serious are not universal

While a majority of respondents strongly agree climate change is real (74%), will bring about serious negative consequences (60%), and is primarily caused by human activity (55%) these views are not held uniformly. Notably, 25% of respondents only somewhat agree the main cause of climate change is anthropogenic, while another 6% neither agree nor disagree. The level of agreement on the proximity of climate impacts is mixed. Only 41% of respondents strongly agree their local areas will be affected and only 42% strongly disagree it will be a long time before the consequences of climate change are felt.

Half of Canadians are very worried about climate change, and few are hopeful

Half (51%) of respondent are very or extremely worried about the issue of climate change, while 34% feel very or extremely anxious about the issue. People who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority (15%), and one quarter (23%) express no hope at all. Only a small percentage (13%) feel very or extremely confused about the issue, but more than half (55%) express at least slight confusion.

Strong belief in climate change varies by region

Out of all demographic characteristics, region had the biggest association with belief in climate change. Respondents from AB/NT and MB/SK/NU had significantly lower levels of belief in climate change than those from BC/YK, ON, and the Atlantic. Please note that these results are for strong belief, while there’s a further group who somewhat believe in climate change. In terms of other demographic factors, those with higher levels of education are more likely to strongly believe in climate change, while men, particularly those between the ages of 35 and 54, are less likely to believe. Note: Though it is standard practice to combine MB/SK in regional analyses, SK had a significantly lower rate of strong belief (60%) than did MB (78%). The Wave 1 sample across the North (YT/NT/NU) was not large enough to break that region out separately, but an oversample in this region is planned for a future wave.

Consensus: Canadians underestimate belief in climate change among other Canadians

On average, respondents estimate that just 58% of Canadians believe climate change is a threat that requires urgent action, despite 81% of respondents reporting the belief that climate change will have serious negative consequences. Respondents also think that people close to them are more concerned about climate change than the average Canadian.

In your opinion, what percentage of people in each of the following groups believes climate change is a threat that requires urgent action?

Norms: Most Canadians agree that people like them care about nature and climate change

Most respondents agree or somewhat agree that people like them care about protecting nature (85%) and about climate change (74%). However, they are less likely to agree that people who are close to them are taking action to help limit climate change. A plurality (41%) of respondents indicate some agreement that people like them know that climate change is part of a natural cycle. This result will be further investigated in future waves of the survey.

While Canadians see some role for individual action, more believe industry and institutions are responsible

About two thirds of respondents think the federal government, businesses, and international organizations should be doing a lot more to limit further climate change. Fewer think regular people in Canada should being doing a lot more to mitigate climate change (45%), though a strong majority still think that regular Canadians should take more action. These results show that many Canadians (nearly half) believe individuals do not have primary responsibility to mitigate climate change (i.e., through individual actions as compared with government policy or actions by industry).

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

Canadians are open to making some changes in their own lives to limit further climate change

Three quarters (75%) of respondents are open to making substantial changes in their lives to help limit climate change, though half of those only somewhat agree with this statement. Two thirds (63%) of respondents say they have already made changes to help limit climate change. Of note, 14% of respondents indicate they strongly or somewhat agree that humans are not the main cause of climate change and that they do not therefore need to make changes in their lives.

Most Canadians believe it possible to limit further climate change through collective action

A majority of respondents believe that it is possible to limit further climate change through collective (78%) and personal action (68%). Most respondents (86%) believe they currently act in an environmentally-friendly ways. Even though 41% of respondents agree or somewhat agree that climate change is a natural phenomenon, very few (16%) think that taking actions related to climate change will have no effect.

Food: Reducing food waste is fairly common but wholly plant-based diets are rare

Among the suite of personal pro-climate mitigation habits assessed in this survey, efforts to eat a more plant-based diet are among the least common. Plant-based diets are more common among women than men, and among those with higher than lower levels of education. Plant-based diets also correlate with biospheric values, having a strong willingness to act to mitigate climate change, and believing one’s personal actions can have a positive impact.

Home energy: Mixed levels on home retrofit adoption and planning

More than three quarters (79%) of survey respondents who are homeowners report having completed at least one retrofit to increase energy efficiency in their homes; however, adoption varies widely across retrofits. The most common items were energy efficient windows and doors (59%), followed by smart or adaptive thermostats (43%).

Transportation: High reliance on private vehicles in day-to-day activities

Currently, 10% of Canadians regularly use public transportation and 35% regularly use active transportation. This compares poorly with two thirds (64%) who use private vehicles to commute and run errands. Note: Transportation behaviour, including frequency and mode share, has been affected by the pandemic and may change substantially in the medium term (e.g., flying, public transportation use).

Transportation: Few Canadians have EVs or hybrid vehicles, a minority may buy in the next year

About 10% of respondents report owning or leasing either an electric vehicle (EV) or hybrid vehicle, though about half of those respondents also have a gas- or diesel-powered vehicle. While current ownership rates of EVs are low (5%), another 15% of respondents say that they plan to purchase one in the next year, suggesting that there may be growing demand (a trend that will be monitored in future waves of the survey). One fifth (21%) of respondents plan to buy either an EV or hybrid within the next year.

Electric and hybrid vehicles are strongly associated with household income, ownership is increasing

Possession of an electric or hybrid vehicle is strongly linked to household income. A fifth (22%) of respondents who have household incomes of $200K or more annually already own or lease an electric or hybrid vehicle, while rates are much lower (between 6 and 12%) for those with lower annual household incomes. There are also some regional variations, with BC leading in both hybrid and EV ownership. QC also has relatively higher ownership levels compared to other regions. Both provinces – and more recently, all of the Atlantic provinces – offer rebates on the lease or purchase of electric and hybrid vehicles. Compared to a PCO study on zero-emission vehicles a year earlier, hybrid and EV ownership has generally increased. Hybrid vehicles remain more common than EVs.

Waste: Many Canadians recycle, but repairing and buying used are less common

An overwhelming majority of respondents report that they always or frequently recycle (92%) and more than half make similar efforts to reduce plastic use (62%). While fewer are engaged in other behaviours related to the circular economy (e.g., repairing, reusing), at least 50% report repairing products to extend their lifespans and buying or trading things second-hand instead of new on occasion (once or twice a month).

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Extreme weather is universal, but its impacts are not

Nearly all respondents (98%) report having experienced extreme weather in the past two years, with excessive heat and cold, wind storms, and weather-related power outages most common. More than twice as many (55%) report having experienced wildfire smoke as having experienced wildfires in their local area (26%). The effect of these experiences on perceptions of climate change and support for climate policy will be evaluated in further analyses. 

Substantial intention-action gap in household emergency preparedness

Less than half of respondents (45%) report having an emergency supply kit, while only a quarter (26%) have a household-level emergency plan. However, a further third say they plan to create these within the next year. Future waves will track whether this intention holds as the memory of recent weather-related disasters fades. Adaptation-related research and policy in Canada have largely focused on emergency preparedness and response (i.e., coping), not long-term adaptation to climate change. Adaptation behaviours can be more comprehensively investigated as the knowledge base deepens.

Information-seeking is how Canadians most commonly prepare for the impacts of climate change

Over half of respondents (53%) have taken no action in the last two months to prepare for the impacts of extreme weather and climate change. The most common actions taken consist of information-seeking, with 30% of respondents having looked for information on future impacts of climate change and risks of extreme weather events in their local area.

Most Canadians can afford their energy costs, but a minority cannot

The vast majority of respondent (89%) had no issues with energy affordability in the past two months. Respondents who report experiencing energy affordability issues within the last two months are more commonly located in rural areas (at a rate of 18%), and in Alberta (13%) and Atlantic Canada (16%).

8. Support for Environmental and Climate Policies

High levels of support for renewable resource development, mixed results for bio and nuclear

There is strong consensus among the respondents in our study that Canada should be moving away from oil and coal and toward development of renewables, especially solar (88% somewhat or strongly support). However, there is less agreement on bioenergy, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Compared to results from PCO survey in February 2021, support (somewhat or strongly) for further development of natural gas has dropped by 24% and oil by 26%. That study did not ask about support for further coal development.

Strong support for many climate policies, but not necessarily the most effective ones for mitigation

The vast majority of respondents support efforts to protect ecosystems and increase greenspace. This is followed closely by improving the resilience of vital infrastructure to extreme weather events. Policies related more directly to GHG emission reductions, such as carbon pricing and capping emissions from the production of oil and gas are also supported, but at lower levels. Of note, there is greater support for (+7%) and less strong opposition to (-6%) a global carbon price than a national carbon price. Future waves will test whether this differentiation of nature, adaptation and mitigation holds for other sets of policies.

9. Trust & Information

Trust in scientists and friends on climate change, distrust in all levels of government

A strong majority of respondents completely or somewhat trust scientists – much more than any other group – while family and friends are also widely trust. However, respondents’ expressions of trust are tentative – a plurality report somewhat trusting all groups other than fossil fuel companies. While 79% of respondents believe that the Government of Canada should do more to limit climate change, only a third completely (5%) or somewhat (37%) trust the Government on this issue. 

Canadians are exposed to climate change information from a wide variety of sources

Canadian TV and radio channels, including their websites, are the most common source of information on climate change (40% always or frequently). Social media platforms are less so (6-20%). Friends and family remain an important source of climate information (24%), which is notable because of the trust that respondents expressed in them. Few people frequently access government websites for information (13%), but half of respondents do so at least occasionally.

Misinformation: A sizeable minority believe that climate change is partly a natural phenomenon

Respondents were asked about the causes of climate change as part of several questions throughout the survey. Despite high belief in climate change (74% of respondents strongly agree climate change is real), nearly half (41%) of respondents at least somewhat agree that climate change is part of a natural cycle, and 25% only somewhat agree that human activity is the main cause of climate change. These respondents may believe in a combination of factors – both human and natural. The roles of basic scientific and climate literacy, including exposure to misinformation and disinformation, will be further explored in future waves.

10. Regional Profiles