The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in CanadaLongitudinal Study: Wave 6

1. Background

In September 2021, in partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), the Impact and Innovation Unit launched a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action in Canada (PARCA) will combine behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to promote climate action.

Together with ECCC and NRCan, we will learn about how Canadians think, feel and act in response to climate change and the risks it creates. We will then develop and test, online and in the real world, specific behaviourally-informed solutions with the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote climate adaptation at the individual and community level. This work will generate new insights on a rapid timeframe and use them to inform policy development, program design, and public communications.

2. Methodology

The study is conducted with a General Population Random Sample using a longitudinal design (i.e. the same participants, where possible, will be completing the survey each wave), along with oversampling of underrepresented populations and other specific populations of interest. This initial study will span eight waves between December 2021 and March 2023, with data collected every two months to allow for optimal monitoring.

• Advisory Committee

  The longitudinal survey is designed in consultation with an advisory committee of academics and practitioners. The committee consists of subject matter experts from a diverse range of backgrounds, including behavioural science, environmental psychology, communications, political science, anthropology, climate policy, and sustainability.

• Survey Objectives

  The PARCA longitudinal study is public opinion research that uses a large and nationally representative sample of Canadians to gather data and track changes over time about how Canadians think, feel, and act in response to climate change and its impacts. The robust, quantitative evidence generated by this study will help identify where there is potential for promoting greater individual climate and environmental action.

• Data Collection & Analysis

  Surveys are conducted online, in English and French, by Advanis, a leading Canadian market research company. Respondents are recruited through random digit dialing calls and invited to complete the survey online. Each wave takes about 20 minutes to complete, after which participants are asked whether they may be contacted for future waves.

  To ensure the sample is broadly representative of the Canadian population and to allow for analyses within and between subgroups of interests (e.g. regions, provinces, age groups, vulnerable groups), each wave consists of 2,000 participants. The sample includes general population respondents (n=1,500) weighted by region, age group, gender, and education using data from the 2016 Census, as well as an oversample (n=500) of populations of specific interest, which may change from one wave to the next. In Wave 1, the oversample was used to extend the general population sample to 2,000 participants.

  Impact Canada conducts exploratory and confirmatory data analyses using descriptive and inferential statistics to identify emerging trends and test relationships among variables.

3. Key Insights

Canadians consistently underestimate the prevalence of pro-climate attitudes nationally. There is also a persistent disparity between Canadians' high willingness to take pro-climate action, on one hand, and their lower perceptions of social norms and the potential impact of their actions, on the other. In combination, these patterns may discourage climate actions and the voicing of pro-climate views that are incorrectly thought to be outside the norm.

Climate Change Perceptions: More than half of Canadians strongly agree that climate change is a threat that requires urgent action, but only a third of respondents believe that they have already or will experience the effects of climate change. Levels of worry, anger, and anxiety in response to climate change have leveled out and hope has increased slightly, but half of respondents continue to report feeling very or extremely worried. When asked to rate the threats created by climate change and its future impacts, respondents see the greatest threats to the natural environment, Canadians’ health/wellbeing, and Canada’s economic growth. In contrast, they see somewhat less threat to their own health and finances, and lowest threat to societal institutions, including national security.

Mitigation Behaviours: Engagement in most mitigation behaviours has remained relatively stable over time. As cooler months approach, there has been an increase in the frequency of people adjusting their thermostats to save energy and a slight decrease in the use of parks and other natural spaces. Energy unaffordability remains high, and quite variable over time, in the Atlantic provinces.

Adaptation Behaviours: Overall, slightly fewer respondents say they have recently experienced extreme weather than in August 2022. Wildfire smoke and drought have increased, while periods of excessive heat have decreased. There has been an increase in respondents who have acted to protect their homes against weather-related risks, especially in the Atlantic provinces, likely due to Hurricane Fiona.

Climate Policy Support: Subsidizing the purchase of zero-emission vehicles receives substantially higher support than banning the sale of new gas and diesel vehicles, while support for a national carbon price has not changed significantly since August. Almost twice as many respondents prioritize limiting climate change as prioritize growing the economy when asked to compare the two.

Social Consensus: When asked to estimate the share of Canadians holding various pro-climate views, including support for three climate policies, people consistently underestimate social consensus. Canadians tend to think that pro-climate views are in the minority when survey data shows that there is often a strong pro-climate majority. Among the largest gaps between perceived and actual consensus are on willingness to act and support for a national carbon price – gaps of 29% and 25%, respectively. This may deter people from taking climate action and voicing pro-climate views if they see themselves as outside the norm.

Information Sources and Trust: Trust in the federal government’s integrity on climate change has improved slightly, while trust in competence has decreased slightly. Canadian TV and radio, and family and friends, continue to be the most-used general sources of information, while government websites are among the least frequently used. Social media platforms continue to be infrequently used as general sources of information, but when broken down by belief in climate change, those who disbelieve in climate change more often use TikTok/YouTube as sources of information than other social media platforms.

4. Considerations

Data Collected: October 14 – November 9, 2022

Sample Size: 2,051

When interpreting the PARCA results, it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may have influenced the responses of survey participants. Prior to and during the Wave 6 data collection period:

• Notable weather events in Canada:
  • Hurricane Fiona hit Atlantic Canada at end of September and led to widespread property destruction and power outages. Coverage emphasized that many residents lack flood insurance despite increasing flood risks, and that there is a growing need for climate change adaptation, in general, including climate-resilient infrastructure.
  • Other weather events included wildfires and droughts in BC.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Russian oil and gas continued. Ongoing energy security and geopolitical concerns continued to drive calls for fossil fuel production and an accelerated renewable energy transition.
• Over the past two months, there have been increasing reports of inflation and a possible recession in Canada, along with interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Both may have implications for how Canadians perceive the individual and collective costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation, including carbon pricing.
• The second quarterly Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) was delivered to Canadians on October 14. Confusion over the payment continued for Canadians due to unclear labelling of the deposit by some financial institutions.
• The federal government’s Fall Economic Statement, released on November 3, included new tax credits for investments in clean technology and low-emission hydrogen production, among other climate-related items.
• Towards the end of data collection, on November 6, the Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 27), opened in Egypt, with negotiations including a focus on “loss and damage”.

5. Climate Change Attitudes & Perceptions

While most Canadians believe in climate change, fewer recognize its local and personal impacts

All measures of climate change belief have remained relatively stable since this set of questions was last asked in Wave 4 (June 2022). Only one third of respondents strongly agree that climate change will harm them personally (a slight increase from 29% to 33%), or that they have already personally experienced the effects of climate change (27%). A higher percentage of respondents strongly agree that their province or territory has already felt negative effects from climate change (41%). More than half (56%) believe climate change is a threat that requires urgent action. Across Waves 2, 4, and 6, a stable minority (11-14%) strongly disagrees that climate change has had local or personal effects.

Negative emotional responses to climate change steady, hope has rebounded slightly

Respondents’ negative emotional responses to climate change have leveled off since Wave 5 (Aug 2022). Half (49%) of respondents remain very or extremely worried, while a third feel very or extremely angry (32%) and anxious (33%). A small percentage (9%) feel very or extremely confused, down from 14% in Wave 1 (Dec 2021). People who feel very or extremely hopeful are a small minority, though there has been a slight increase since Wave 5 (Aug 2022), from 11% to 15%. Those aged 18-34 are significantly more likely to feel anxious and angry compared to other age groups. Notably, parents are more hopeful and less worried or anxious compared to non-parents.

Most Canadians are willing to act, but fewer feel expected to act or that their actions are impactful

Three quarters (75%) of respondents strongly or somewhat agree that collective action can limit further climate change, while a smaller share (69%) are willing to act to limit it. Perceived self-efficacy and social norms are steady since Wave 5. Though willingness to act seems to have dropped by 4%, matching the low observed in Wave 3 (Apr 2022), this change is not statistically significant. Only two thirds (64%) somewhat or strongly agree their actions are impactful (i.e., self-efficacy). Slightly fewer perceive that people close to them expect them to act (59%), or that their family and friends are taking action (54%) (i.e., social norms).

Climate change seen as most threatening to the environment; more of a collective threat than personal

Respondents were asked to rate the perceived threat that climate change and its future impacts represent across a variety of domains. The most common threats were to Canada’s environment and biodiversity (60% major threat), the health and wellbeing of both marginalized (52%) and regular Canadians (42%), and Canada’s economic growth (36%). Respondents see climate change as less of a threat to their own health/wellbeing and household finances than for Canadians more broadly. While more than half of respondents (42%) rated climate change as a major threat to the health and wellbeing of marginalized Canadians, only half as many (26%) see it as a major threat to their own health and wellbeing. Similarly, 36% see a major threat to Canada’s economic growth, compared to 25% to their own household finances.

Around half of Canadians see climate change as a major or moderate threat to society

Despite lower levels of threat perception than for the natural environment, economy, and health and wellbeing (see previous figure), about half of Canadians perceive that climate change is a major or moderate threat to Canada’s national security (53%), democratic institutions (53%), law and order (52%), and rights and freedoms (49%). The results shown here suggest that many Canadians see climate change as a substantial and systemic threat to Canada across all domains.

Canadians who disagree that climate change is urgent perceive relatively higher threat to economy, household finances, and rights and freedoms

Earlier in the survey, respondents were asked whether they perceive climate change, in general, to be a threat that requires urgent action. This answer was predictive of the more specific threat ratings, but with important nuances. The vast majority of those who agree that climate change, in general, is a threat requiring urgent action rate it as a threat (major, moderate, or minor) across all domains, though higher for environment, economy, and health and wellbeing (92-100%), than for society (80-89%). Those who neither agree nor disagree that climate change is an urgent threat, in general, see it as relatively less threatening to their own finances and personal health and wellbeing. Those who disagree that climate change is an urgent threat, in general, see it as most threatening to the environment, economy, and their own household finances. In notable contrast to the other groups, though they perceive lower threats overall, this group sees more threat to the rights and freedoms of Canadians than to other societal factors.

6. Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

High reliance on private vehicles, modes of transport stable

Dependence on private vehicles remains high, with 87% of respondents using them to get around at least once a week. Use of other modes of transport remains stable since Wave 5 (Aug 2022). Younger respondents (18-34), as well as those earning less than $40,000 per year, are more likely to make daily use of public transit (i.e., 5+ times per week) than other groups. Middle-aged (35-54) and older Canadians (55+), as well as men and respondents earning more than $40,000 per year, are more likely to make daily use of private vehicles. The effect of community size warrants further analysis, but broadly, residents of large cities and suburban areas more often use public and active transportation, and less often use private vehicles, than those in small urban and rural areas.

Air travel remains steady following summer season

Flying has a major climate impact despite its infrequency relative to other modes of transport. More than a fifth (22%) of respondents have taken at least one flight in the past two months, with 16% reporting at least one short flight (<5 hours), and 10% reporting at least one long flight (>5 hours). Air travel has been relatively steady since the end of summer leisure travel season.

Food and waste behaviours remain steady over time, increase in thermostat adjustment to save energy

Recycling (93% always or frequently) and reducing food waste (78%) remain two of the most common pro-environmental actions, while eating a more plant-based diet remains the lowest (34%). As the cooler months approach, there has been an increase in the frequency of respondents adjusting their thermostats to save energy. Older Canadians (55+) and women are more likely to engage in all of these behaviours, while urban residents are more likely to make efforts to eat a plant-based diet. Those earning less than $40,000 a year are less likely to recycle but more likely to reduce plastic use or make efforts to eat a plant-based diet.

Most Canadians continue to spend time in parks or natural spaces at least once a week

Almost three quarters (73%) of respondents report spending time in parks or natural spaces at least once a week during the last two months. This is a slight decline from Wave 5 (77% in Aug 2022), likely due to cooler weather. This high frequency of use highlights the importance of access to quality parks and natural spaces, even as the seasons change. Residents of Quebec continue to report significantly lower rates of daily park use than those in BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while rural residents report significantly greater daily use than residents of urban and suburban areas.

Energy unaffordability has increased slightly, Atlantic provinces most affected

At the national level, energy unaffordability is fairly steady, with 10% of respondents reporting that they could not afford enough energy to meet their daily needs. The apparent increase since Wave 5 is not statistically significant. Regionally, respondents from the Atlantic provinces (21%) report significantly higher rates of energy unaffordability than all other regions, while those in Quebec (2%) report significantly lower rates. Nationally, energy is least affordable for residents of rural areas (14%) and small cities or towns (14%).

Highest and most variable energy unaffordability, over time, in Atlantic provinces, lowest in Quebec

When viewed over time, residents of the Atlantic provinces tend to report the highest energy unaffordability and residents of Quebec the lowest. This likely relates to differences in provincial energy systems, including higher rates of furnace oil use for home heating in the Atlantic provinces, and low-cost electricity and higher heat pump adoption in Quebec. Residents of the Atlantic provinces also report more fluctuation in energy affordability than other regions.

7. Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians have recently experienced more wildfire smoke and drought

Two thirds (68%) of respondents report having experienced at least one kind of extreme weather event in the past two months, down from three quarters (76%) in Wave 5 (Aug 2022). Of the three most common extreme weather events, periods of excessive heat (37%), windstorms (32%) and power outages (25%) decreased or remained steady. The weather is cooling, accounting for the large drop in periods of excessive heat. On the other hand, increases were reported for wildfire smoke (19%) and droughts (15%) – likely driven in part by recent events in BC. The effect of these experiences on perceptions of climate change and support for climate policy will be evaluated in further analyses.

Canadians in Atlantic provinces have taken more action to protect their homes against weather risks

More than half (59%) of respondents report having engaged in NO adaptation behaviours in the last two months, similar to Wave 5 (Aug 2022). The most common behaviours are information-seeking about extreme weather events (27%) and climate change impacts (24%), alongside taking action to protect one’s home against weather risks (12%). Compared to the previous wave, protecting homes against weather risks has increased by 5%. Respondents in the Atlantic provinces have done so at significantly higher rates than those of other regions, most likely due to Hurricane Fiona.

8. Support for Climate Policies

Support for subsidizing purchase of ZEVs higher than for banning sale of new ICE vehicles

In this wave, respondents were asked about a small selection of policies related to climate change mitigation. Each has been asked in at least one previous wave. Overall, subsidizing the purchase of zero-emission vehicles has the highest total support at 67%. In contrast, support for banning the sale of new gas and diesel-powered cars and trucks, which has a similar goal, has the support of just half of respondents (52%). Support for a national carbon tax sits in the middle at 59%.

Nearly twice as many respondents prioritize limiting climate change as prioritize growing the economy

Building on findings from Wave 4, in which it was observed that respondents were making trade-offs between environment- and economy-related policy priorities, this question explicitly asked respondents to rate the relative importance of limiting climate change vs. growing the economy. Nearly twice as many respondents place more importance on limiting climate change (41%) as prioritize growing the economy (24%). A third of respondents (34%) rate both as equally important. Those who prioritize limiting climate change are more likely to be younger (18-34), female, and from Quebec, while those who prioritize growing the economy are more likely to be middle-aged (35-54), male, from Alberta, and to underestimate pro-climate norms among Canadians.

9. Social Consensus

Canadians underestimate social consensus about climate change as a threat requiring urgent action

To investigate potential disparities between people’s own attitudes and their perceptions of social norms, Wave 6 asked a series of questions about social consensus as follow-ups to existing attitudinal questions – i.e., how do you think Canadians would respond to the question you have just answered? On average, people estimate that less than half of Canadians (46%) believe climate change to be a threat that requires urgent action. In contrast, the actual social consensus among our respondents is 75%. Respondents therefore underestimated social consensus by 29%. Notably, while a strong majority of Canadians sees climate change as a threat requiring urgent action, most people think of this as the minority view.

Canadians consistently underestimate social consensus on climate change, which may deter their own actions (Average Estimate of Consensus Within Each Group)

When asked to estimate the share of Canadians holding other climate-related attitudes, respondents underestimate social consensus by 10 to 29%. They most severely underestimate the proportion who are willing to act to mitigate climate change (40% perceived vs. 69% actual). Notably, while most Canadians actually hold pro-climate attitudes, respondents often perceive these to be held by a minority (i.e., below 50%). This consistent and often large gap between perceived and actual consensus may limit individual action. Research from behavioural science on social norms has shown that people are less likely to voice or act on views they think are counter to the majority.

Perceptions of social consensus differ by belief in climate change, but pro-climate attitudes still incorrectly seen as the minority view

In addition to the gap between respondents’ collective responses and their average perception of social consensus, there is a big difference in how respondents estimate the social consensus depending on their own belief in climate change. In all questions, average estimates of social consensus among those who disagree that climate change is real are much lower than among those who believe in climate change. This suggests that people’s perceptions of others’ views are biased by their own. That said, even those who believe in climate change incorrectly perceive that pro-climate attitudes are in the minority.

10. Information Sources & Trust

Two thirds of Canadians distrust the federal government’s integrity on climate change

Two thirds of respondents (64%) agree or strongly agree that the federal government is too influenced by industry regarding climate change. More than half of respondents distrust the government to spend money efficiently on climate change (58%), competently deal with the issue (54%), and listen to ordinary people (54%). There has been a slight but statistically significant decrease in distrust related to integrity, while distrust related to competence has increased slightly. The relatively high levels of distrust in government integrity, competence, responsiveness, and fairness could be limiting overall trust in government.

Canadian TV and radio, and friends and family, are the most common sources of information

Canadian TV and radio channels, including their websites, are the most common source of information for Canadians (54% always or frequently), while friends and family are second (47%). Use of government websites remains relatively low at 19% always or frequently. Use of sources of information has remained fairly steady over time.

TikTok/YouTube are the most commonly used platforms among climate change disbelievers

Due to space constraints in Wave 6, the six major social media platforms were grouped into three items based on an earlier analysis of their relationship to climate-related information. Among social media platforms, Facebook/Instagram are used most often (29% always or frequently) as general sources of information, while Reddit/Twitter are used least (17%). When broken down by belief in climate change, the social media platforms most often used by those who disbelieve in climate change are TikTok/Youtube, whereas Facebook/Instagram are the platforms most often used by those who believe in climate change or are unsure.

11. Regional Profiles